Ten Bold Predictions for 2024

Topic: Perspective

Going 6 for 10 on a final exam puts you in hot water.  Going 6 for 10 in baseball puts you on a hot streak.  Going 6 for 10 in making direct hits with geopolitical predictions for an entire year, not to mention 2 of the remaining still accounting for partial hits is hard to do, and worth recounting here – in the recap of my 2023 predictions posted last week.

2023 predictions are child’s play compared to the monumental, future shaping year that is now upon us.  I’m not one of those writers who pretends to get everything right.  If I botch something, I own it.  The predictions I’m about to make in this space pertain to things so monumental, they will require a full accounting a year from now, and if you’ve followed my writing, you know just how dire things may be in this country on January 1, 2025… or how brilliantly bright they may appear to be.  After all, we get one extra day this leap year to factor into our predictions.

Without further ado, here are my Ten Bold Predictions for 2024:

I.               RFK, Jr., will Underwhelm as a Presidential Candidate

I took a lot of flak for talking people off the ledge when they thought radical environmentalism would shatter the very coalition that flocked to Donald Trump because his trade positions broke many of the chains Democrats had imposed on them that look amateurish compared to what Kennedy would do.  Western Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana would essentially resemble Belarus under his presidency within about six months.

Theorizing over policy and election manipulation aside, Kennedy is going to have a hell of a time moving the needle thanks to ballot access.  It is nearly impossible for an independent candidate to gain ballot access in Georgia or Arizona, and his team is only pursuing ballot access in a few states that may prove instrumental in the race to 270 electoral votes.  If Kennedy is still running for president in November, I expect him to hurt Biden more than Trump practically everywhere, particularly in states that need a populist on the left to dent Biden’s numbers for a Trump upset to take place – think New Hampshire, Virginia, or New Jersey.  Sometimes, it feels like Kennedy is working for Trump.

II.             Veepstakes Final Four

This prediction category is one that was looking good for me at the halfway point in 2023.  I had expected Kari Lake to emerge as the frontrunner for this position, but her U.S. Senate announcement dashed those dreams.  I am not about checking politically correct boxes, but the rightfemale candidate would be a great complement to Trump – and not only does Lake punch back, hold the right positions, and handle the mic with aplomb, she hails from the critical faux battleground of Arizona.

Jeff Dornik made a good point on social media a few weeks ago about Vice Presidential picks, and though I don’t like the reality of it, he’s probably correct – at least on a dry erase board.  Dornik made the case that Trump must pick the best establishment choice possible if his goal is to minimize defections to the Democrat or third-party candidates.  MAGA voters are voting for Trump.  Most establishment Republican Trump-haters (and there aren’t that many) will be voting for him, too.  The balancing act is picking someone from the mainstream Republican Party that will not cost Trump base voters, while ensuring enough of the suburban Republican coalition stays on board, particularly for the essential states of Texas, Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.

I believe Trump will have a couple insiders in mind, and a couple outsiders.  The insiders aren’t exactly quiet, as I’ve written about both Kristi Noem and Greg Abbott recently.  Both governors have bent the knee and avoided the RNC’s typical snatching of defeat from the jaws of victory regarding the nomination nightmare, which backs up my fourth prediction on this list you will read shortly.  Of the two, Abbott is the better choice.  Texas looms large this year and is on pace to be won by fewer votes and a smaller margin than Florida will be. 

Abbott, although no longer beloved by hardcore grassroots patriots in Texas, guarantees Texas will not be Georgia’d (Texas was won by Trump by a margin nearly identical to Trump’s victory in Georgia in 2016, albeit artificially tight) and is popular with suburban moderate Republicans and Hispanic voters.  Abbott will have to get tough on the border to effectively court this nomination, and he is in his third term as chief executive of a state known for its massive oil industry and energy production, which is a huge staple of the MAGA economy.  Noem has also struggled to maintain the approval of South Dakota grassroots patriots but is well-liked nationwide and presents the image of strong, conservative woman with laser precision.  In my view, her biggest political drawback is that she neither comes from a critical 2024 state, nor borders one that is likely to determine the outcome of the election now that Minnesota’s Democrat trifecta has made that state not worth campaigning in.

Fearmongering over Nikki Haley aside, Ben Carson is making waves lately as a potential choice.  Carson fits into my category of outsider here even though he served as a member of Trump’s cabinet.  He’s never been elected to office and has always been loyal to Trump, never choosing to play the RNCs games in which aspiring candidates jockey for favor and money.  Carson is almost impossible to dislike and presents a loyal, yet different, complement to Trump.  My fourth and final prediction space goes to an unknown outsider not yet in our discussion.  In 2016, Lt. General (Ret.) Michael Flynn was one of the last remaining picks on the board in a year where national defense, the war against ISIS, and the degradation of the military was a huge concern for voters.  While there may emerge a choice like Flynn in coming months, it would also be extremely Trumpian to allow Robert Kennedy to amass 15% hard support and join forces on a unity ticket at the last minute.  Such a roll of the dice could be deadly to the chances of any Democrat, even with 2020-level manipulation, but also comes with the known risk of major policy disagreement that jeopardizes many key positions Trump’s base supports, such as gun rights and a wide-open manufacturing economy free of stifling restrictions.

III.            GOP Primary Hindenburg

You should have discerned by now that I’m predicting Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee, contingent upon a series of caucuses and primary elections that comes out even halfway fair.  You will find as you read down this list of predictions that I believe conditions will be in place for Trump not only to wrap up the necessary delegates to earn the GOP nomination but to win every single state’s nominating contest.  There is precisely one candidate not named Trump who is making a good name for himself, and likely guaranteeing himself a cabinet position, and that is Vivek Ramaswamy.  You can read my in-depth thoughts about him here.  Tim Scott jumped out in Scott Walker fashion, preventing him from receiving criticism over sojourning while still in office, and then there are those who are hanging around either to perform a Kasich-style eating tour or to generate future book sales – like Chris Christie, Asa Hutchinson, and Doug Burgum.  Of people in the book deal category, only Mike Pence has left the primary party, and I suspect someone else pulled those strings.

There are two who have overstayed their welcome, one tragically so.  Nikki Haley is the latest chaff in the media propaganda chimney; while I have listed above that there may be some concessions made in selecting a V.P. candidate, I wouldn’t list a war hawk with ties to everything grassroots patriots hate as a viable running mate.  Haley is still in the race because the next big name in the race, Ron DeSantis, underperformed in historical fashion after pulling himself out of the political oven four years too early.

Florida’s primary is on March 19.  By that time, so many primaries and caucuses will have passed by then DeSantis will be sitting on perhaps only a few more delegates than me.  While Marco Rubio stayed around for the home-state thrashing of a lifetime in 2016, he wasn’t the sitting governor.  I predict DeSantis will listen to today’s whispers and soon return to the position he was reelected for before dropping his own state by 40 points – an outcome that would tarnish his governorship and threaten his moral authority.  This will be an easy decision for him if he’s still burning up donor money by March 5.

IV.           All Judicial Persecution of Trump Will Fail

Notwithstanding recent news suggesting the prosecution and persecution of President Trump is not going according to a desired timeline, the endorsements of Trump by Governors Noem, Abbott, and Sarah Huckabee Sanders suggest to me that some with plenty to lose going forward in a hypothetical future dominated by Republican elites don’t seem to think Donald Trump is going to be locked up and unable to run for the Presidency, either by Jack Smith, Fani Willis, or anyone else, and neither do their advisors who get paid big dollars to help candidates make the safest, most poll-tested decisions possible in an age in which few are willing to roll the dice and go for it on fourth and long.

The Smith witch hunt against President Trump is starting to hit major roadblocks, with the U.S. Supreme Court slowing down a roll that is running so quickly it is obvious to the entire nation it is politically motivated and designed, just like the COVID scam of 2020, to damage President Trump in an election environment.  The endorsements of Republican officials, combined with the gently settling narrative accepting Trump as the GOP nominee, tells me Jack Smith’s efforts against President Trump will wind up with the same impact as Robert Mueller’s did.

V.             The U.S. Supreme Court will Invalidate All Moves to Remove Trump from Ballots

Political and judicial activists have used the lull of Christmas season to do what they do best – tear at the sinews of the Republic and disenfranchise Americans of their rights and freedoms.  In Colorado and Maine, the Supreme Court and the Secretary of State, respectively, moved to remove President Trump’s name from the ballot, though some confusion exists as to exactly when said removal may be in effect.

The biggest problem these failed states have, outside of the corrupt actions themselves, is that some of their fellow failed states, like Minnesota and California, have declined to remove President Trump from their ballots.  With primaries or caucuses beginning as soon as January 15 (Iowa), the Supreme Court will have no choice but to make an expedited ruling – and with disagreement, and perceivably merit, disjointing efforts to remove Trump from ballots nationwide, I see no way these pushes to remove Trump stand up, no matter how prevalent judicial malfeasance appears to be.

VI.           Violence (or War) will be the “COVID” of 2024

Branch COVIDians will be disappointed to read that their dysfunctional masquerade will likely be overlooked for lack of public interest and unwillingness for law enforcement to continue the scam that destroyed small business, child development, and basic personal interaction for nearly two years; still, with Joe Biden or any Democrat unable to defeat President Trump in a fair election, something will have to be cooked up to convince people it is too dangerous to emerge from their homes, and give a nudge for election procedures to be loosened just a little bit more, as if there is much slack left to give.

Politicians from both parties, especially Joe Biden, are chomping at the bit to bang the war drums, especially against Russia and China, now that warmongering on behalf of Israel seems to have run its course.  Why would foreign entanglements help Biden?  People pushing those buttons knowwartime presidents have historically received extra political grace from the public because in the past, Americans have been unwilling to change horses in the middle of a massive war.  The public’s awakening toward wars of choice may circumvent this historical note, so it would make sense that massive, coordinated cartel violence in major metros, along with violence from the military-aged men of many nationalities, would serve to destabilize the American public and create a narrative for the government to exercise greater control for what they will inevitably describe as the public safety.  Read here if you want to see what happens along the border, more than a thousand miles from where it is dotted on your map.

VII.          Joe Biden will not Debate Donald Trump

Lots of us thought that wouldn’t happen in 2020 because Biden wouldn’t pop his head out of his basement, and his inability to speak coherently was evident then; however, we had no idea that both the 2020 and 2022 cycles (with Katie Hobbs in the latter) would bring us to a new era in politics in which the things that were certain to damn a campaign, because it had to be accountable to voters, no longer mattered.

Elections are a bit like baseball.  In a Major League season, almost every team wins 60 games, and loses 60 games.  It is what happens in the other 42 games that determines the fate of that team. Likewise, in most states, both candidates are going to get 40% of the vote.  What happens in the margins, that last 20%, is what determines the race.  Previously, skipping a debate amidst scandal or belief that a candidate is incapable of responding in sound mind would take the cake for a dead ringer that candidate isn’t fit for office.  Now, there is no need.  Biden, if he is the Democrat nominee in the fall, can simply say he won’t share the stage with and validate an insurrectionist and the media will parrot it to the 30% who will sleep forever.

VIII.        Trump will Channel Jackson, Polk, and Grant

While many of Trump’s key associates and allies have tried to “move on” from the 2020 quasi-election, Trump has continued to double down on the fact that he should have remained in office for four more years as the winner of both the electoral and popular votes over Joe Biden.  Trump, who is fond of Andrew Jackson’s populist style, has done as Jackson did after the 1824 electoral debaclethat saw John Quincy Adams take the presidency in what was called the “corrupt bargain,” by continuing to blast the occupant of the White House and decry the manner in which he came to reside there. 

Ron DeSantis’s campaign has tried to hold the fact that Trump can only return to office in the White House for a single four-year term as a major strike against his candidacy.  I have written that Trump’s perceived limitation offers him a platform of great strength, in that the American people need someone unencumbered by having to get reelected to punch through our current set of national problems rather than dealing with someone who plays it safe and compromises with people who don’t have the best interests of the country at heart.  In this sense, he will channel James K. Polk, who ran on a platform of seeking just one term and kept his word, while kicking serious ass in office, annexing Texas and the Oregon Country, and winning the Mexican American War, which gave the U.S. vast swaths of territory in the southwest.

Finally, Trump will channel Ulysses S. Grant, but more as a general than as a President.  Grant’s style overcame his personal setbacks in that he was Lincoln’s man who fought and therefore, couldn’t be spared.  Lincoln had struggled through many Union commanders who were too afraid to mix it up before settling on Grant in March 1864.  With that one term at his disposal, I can think of no other leader who would get to work with a sense of urgency and a willingness to overtake corruption than the President who has suffered under it more than any in modern times.

IX.            Non-white Voters will Re-write Election Math

I can find the steady progression of minority voters in the margins of the 2020 election, in the places even election truthers aren’t looking.  How about this example from Hidalgo County, Texas:

Precinct 50

2016 Result

Trump 237 (20.66%)
Clinton 872 (76.02%)
Margin: Clinton +55.36%

Precinct 50

2020 Result

Trump 743 (50.10%)

Biden 725 (48.89%)

Margin: Trump +1.21%

The blast marks of the minority surge for Trump are still evident in places that weren’t war gamed effectively by those who corrupted the election – evidence of the Trump surge popped up brightest in places like Miami-Dade County, Bronx County, and in small Latino counties in South Texas, one of which voted Republican for the first time since 1920.  Manipulation of minority voting margins was planned well in advance of the election in Atlanta, Milwaukee, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and in other critical locations.  Most of the cheating was carried out in Republican strongholds, especially those that lunged far to the right for Trump in 2016, with a media narrative explaining to you the lie that suburban Republicans would be voting for Biden.  It always mystified me how that could be so, yet Trump’s piles of raw votes and net new votes gained dwarfed those of previous Republican nominees who were supposedly far more popular and palatable to the national electorate.

This time, it is going to take a lot more planning to get the phantom voters out in the right places.  Trump is likely to win a majority of the Latino vote in Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada, and enough of it to put a major dent in margins in places that have loads of Latino voters, like Southern California and New York City.  The black vote, if it moves even 10 points in favor of Trump, will doom Democrats statewide in Georgia and push North Carolina and all 2020 contested states out of reach, while bringing a number of perpetually blue states razor tight.  You can read about that impact here.

X.             2024: Light Appears at the End of the Tunnel

I will repeat it again: Read The Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe.  The authors display an uncanny ability to relate centuries of history to what modern-day people are living through in the present, and it is very clear that we are nearing the climax of this saeculum, or era in history roughly equal to the lifespan of a typical human (80 years).  I won’t spoil the book for you here, but I consider it required reading for everyone scratching their heads about the insane levels of corruption in the modern world and acting as if no humans have ever before lived through such uncertainty.

Looking for progress in the day to day is a surefire way to burn out and drive yourself to legitimate anxiety, insanity, poor health, and unhappiness.  Instead, this X post by the 17^th Special Civilians Operations Group hits the nail on the head for me. 

The world is simply too crazy, too tedious, and too tightly wound to continue at this pace indefinitely.  I have continuously cited Rasmussen polling showing approximately 5 out of 8 American likely voters do not believe the 2020 election results were decided fairly, and even higher percentages of the same do not trust the administration of elections to provide believable outcomes – and elections represent only one facet of the institutional corruption plaguing not just the United States, and not just The West, but the entire world thanks to the advent of rapid, worldwide communications abilities used by civilians and governments alike.

Your battle must be renewed daily, with long-term success in mind.  What good will it do for us to enjoy President Trump for four more years, and find ourselves up the creek in 2032 or 2036?  My kids will barely be reaching adulthood at that point.

Conclusion

Did you think I was going to make an outright prediction about the 2024 election?  It’s alright if you did.  I am going to be busy for the next 306 days throwing my best pitch every single day, executing in my lane, doing what I do well.  Still, there exist many things outside of my control.  All I can do is my best, and that is what I will do, trusting God for results.

My short-term goal is to restore President Trump to the White House.  My long-term goal looks like this:

Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty.