Well, sadly, the counties that matter are the ones you'll never fix....the counties in Milwaukee, Detroit, Philly, Atlanta, and Phoenix. The existence of the Electoral College makes it very easy to steal an election by cheating like hell in a very small number of counties.
They need to cap precincts & count at that level before sending it )with already certified totals to a major centre). Chop the arms & legs off the fraud beast
Excellent point about making the precincts smaller. If you did that, you could make a better argument for same-day voting. And to those in power at the local & state levels that say that this would be too expensive, I say look for volunteers. I think if you got to a point where you had hand-counted, paper ballots, you'd have no trouble at all finding volunteers of all political persuasions to help with the work.
I just saw these poll numbers last night, and was running the same rough calculations in my head... Thank you for your always detailed and insightful analysis!
This is encouraging, BUT when are we going to stop with the charade that Biden received 81 million certified ballots that were actually both truly +Legal and had Chain of custody+?
Until that number is significantly revised downward by millions thru a counter-propaganda information campaign that gains broader acceptance among the populace, the Democrats' assumption and talking point will be that Biden received 81 million votes in the 2020 election, and every assertion to the contrary is but pure conjecture and conspiracy.
As one who posted previously here about not forgetting about the fraud of 2020 & 2022, thanks for the opening comments. I should have known you wouldn’t.
My only defense is I comment a lot about election integrity when someone says 2024 will be a win for us. In my comments, I reference your work, the Maricopa county audit (which I believe corroborates your analysis about 2020), and the work of True the Vote. If it is to an elected official I tell them they need to contact you to testify.
To mitigate the amount of theft possible in 2024, we still need more people to become aware of just how brazenly corrupt 2020 and 2022 really were.
Well, you're right that the certified total of votes from 2020 is bloated. I'd say by many millions. I think the Montgomery p-cap numbers are right and that Trump won the popular vote by several million. But I also believe Helmut Norpoth......the 20 or 30% of registered voters who don't bother to vote aren't the same group every time. Figuring out who will sit out an election is as important as any polling data that claims to predict who would win the election today. The biggest problem with any poll is always the sample......does it reflect the energy level of the folks supporting each candidate ?? Probably not. I would be careful about assuming big energy behind Trump......a lot of voters who came off the non-voter bench in 2016, but more so in 2020 to vote for Trump, are not happy that their votes were stolen, and many, many of them are too proud to vote again. That's another reason Trump should have filed a quo warranto suit by now.......to a lot of people, he looks like a quitter. Beware of RFK. I believe that he will be the de facto Democrat candidate by next summer, and Biden will be irrelevant. The 19% of Biden voters who now say they will vote for Trump will vote for RFK when the time comes. And a lot of lukewarm Trump voters who wonder why Trump doesn't just run as an independent himself instead of trying to reform the GOP are going to end up voting for RFK. The party that Trump stands with is about to stand behind Uniparty RINO Tom Emmer as House Speaker after rejecting Jim Jordan. Let that sink in. Also recall how little Trump got done (as in getting money for the wall) when he had Paul Ryan fighting against his every move. The only way to drain the swamp is to leave the swamp and take your MAGA voters and MAGA money with you. I have seen this movie before. RFK will be smart enough to point out that Trump stands with the GOP, because he won't leave the GOP. RFK will be smart enough to refine his message on the hot topics and say the right things......like Bill Clinton always did. This is how Jesse Ventura, a pro wrestler turned suburban mayor, won a Governorship running against two very polished politicians. Jesse asked the voters to give the finger to both political parties, and that same mood is in the wind 26 years later. Do not estimate how anxious people are to fuxx over *both* major parties, and RFK may well be the one who benefits.
You have no idea how good this feels!! I've been reading about how President Trump can't finish the race due to lack of money. Very discouraged until now.
This is very encouraging. But I don’t think for a second anyone of us should back off on reforming our elections at the county level.
Accelerate it! The cheating will be unprecedented! Bigger than 2020 and 2022 combined.
Well, sadly, the counties that matter are the ones you'll never fix....the counties in Milwaukee, Detroit, Philly, Atlanta, and Phoenix. The existence of the Electoral College makes it very easy to steal an election by cheating like hell in a very small number of counties.
They need to cap precincts & count at that level before sending it )with already certified totals to a major centre). Chop the arms & legs off the fraud beast
Excellent point about making the precincts smaller. If you did that, you could make a better argument for same-day voting. And to those in power at the local & state levels that say that this would be too expensive, I say look for volunteers. I think if you got to a point where you had hand-counted, paper ballots, you'd have no trouble at all finding volunteers of all political persuasions to help with the work.
I just saw these poll numbers last night, and was running the same rough calculations in my head... Thank you for your always detailed and insightful analysis!
This is encouraging, BUT when are we going to stop with the charade that Biden received 81 million certified ballots that were actually both truly +Legal and had Chain of custody+?
Until that number is significantly revised downward by millions thru a counter-propaganda information campaign that gains broader acceptance among the populace, the Democrats' assumption and talking point will be that Biden received 81 million votes in the 2020 election, and every assertion to the contrary is but pure conjecture and conspiracy.
Agreed!!!
As one who posted previously here about not forgetting about the fraud of 2020 & 2022, thanks for the opening comments. I should have known you wouldn’t.
My only defense is I comment a lot about election integrity when someone says 2024 will be a win for us. In my comments, I reference your work, the Maricopa county audit (which I believe corroborates your analysis about 2020), and the work of True the Vote. If it is to an elected official I tell them they need to contact you to testify.
To mitigate the amount of theft possible in 2024, we still need more people to become aware of just how brazenly corrupt 2020 and 2022 really were.
What a clown world we’re living in! I’m praying the truth about 2020 will come out before then and our rightful President will be back!
Great analysis Seth, as always. I expect MSM counter polls to be released soon. They can’t have the truth getting out there unabated for too long.
You are a blessing to mankind😂
Love this analysis, but do you have similar scenarios where Biden is replaced by Big Mike or Gruesome...?
Baris says Biden is their strongest candidate, bar none, especially in the Midwest. He runs 3-4% ahead of Newsom against Trump
Gruesome and Big Mike. We ALL need to be repeating those words anytime these blood sucking ticks enter the conversation!!
Well, you're right that the certified total of votes from 2020 is bloated. I'd say by many millions. I think the Montgomery p-cap numbers are right and that Trump won the popular vote by several million. But I also believe Helmut Norpoth......the 20 or 30% of registered voters who don't bother to vote aren't the same group every time. Figuring out who will sit out an election is as important as any polling data that claims to predict who would win the election today. The biggest problem with any poll is always the sample......does it reflect the energy level of the folks supporting each candidate ?? Probably not. I would be careful about assuming big energy behind Trump......a lot of voters who came off the non-voter bench in 2016, but more so in 2020 to vote for Trump, are not happy that their votes were stolen, and many, many of them are too proud to vote again. That's another reason Trump should have filed a quo warranto suit by now.......to a lot of people, he looks like a quitter. Beware of RFK. I believe that he will be the de facto Democrat candidate by next summer, and Biden will be irrelevant. The 19% of Biden voters who now say they will vote for Trump will vote for RFK when the time comes. And a lot of lukewarm Trump voters who wonder why Trump doesn't just run as an independent himself instead of trying to reform the GOP are going to end up voting for RFK. The party that Trump stands with is about to stand behind Uniparty RINO Tom Emmer as House Speaker after rejecting Jim Jordan. Let that sink in. Also recall how little Trump got done (as in getting money for the wall) when he had Paul Ryan fighting against his every move. The only way to drain the swamp is to leave the swamp and take your MAGA voters and MAGA money with you. I have seen this movie before. RFK will be smart enough to point out that Trump stands with the GOP, because he won't leave the GOP. RFK will be smart enough to refine his message on the hot topics and say the right things......like Bill Clinton always did. This is how Jesse Ventura, a pro wrestler turned suburban mayor, won a Governorship running against two very polished politicians. Jesse asked the voters to give the finger to both political parties, and that same mood is in the wind 26 years later. Do not estimate how anxious people are to fuxx over *both* major parties, and RFK may well be the one who benefits.
Outstanding analysis Seth as always. Thank you
RFK is a climate change activist and is anti-second amendment.
He offers zero threat to our movement.
He is a candidate for the elitist class that has grown weary of Biden's failures and the woke lunatics.
The average Joe will never vote for anyone but Trump; whether they admit it or not.
Polls mean squat!
Last paragraph makes me smile. Thanks again ❤️🇺🇸🙏🏻
You have no idea how good this feels!! I've been reading about how President Trump can't finish the race due to lack of money. Very discouraged until now.
Well presented analysis, J2!
Now, we need to see your planning factors for what happens with a beautifully-engineered Newsom candidacy from the Democrats.
Staying tuned for your upcoming briefings.
Damn, I need a whiskey and a cigar to fully enjoy these briefs!
Thank you for being a trusted Truth Warrior for me.
After watching his speech the other day, I'm thinking more about whether he can win the whole thing rather than who he'll pull more votes from.