2020’s road to 270 electoral college votes ran through Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The winner of those states was going to be the winner of the Oval Office, under nearly every wargaming scenario imaginable. The shifting of the nation’s largest demographic, whether toward Trump or away from him, would be the indicator foreshadowing the ultimate victor. I have outlined previously how Pennsylvania’s voter behavior, population changes, and voter registration (21:1 in favor of the GOP) shifting, as well as the Keystone State’s strict correlation to Michigan’s electoral shifting, suggest the non-college vote (of all races and ethnicities) would not only remain with President Trump, but expand to modern-record levels.
Wyoming, at Trump +43%, backed Trump by a higher percentage in 2016 than any other state, though Clinton managed to win Teton County. West Virginia went to Trump by +42%, with all 55 counties supporting him.
Below shows the striking trend in West Virginia, which has hemorrhaged Democrat votes for nearly two decades; West Virginia completely missed out on Obamamania in 2008, giving him fewer votes than John Kerry received there in 2004. With a loss of more than 137,000 votes from 2004-2016, the Democrats are on life support there as their party becomes anti-industry and anti-resource extraction. Trump put that demise on warp speed, gaining over 70,000 new votes in 2016 before piling on 56,000 more in 2020.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Captain K's Corner to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.