A Captain's 2024 Electoral College Primer

Topic: Elections

DISCLAIMER

I, Captain Seth E. Keshel, a media-proclaimed “prominent election denier,” am uniquely aware of the realities of modernized election manipulation and its impact on recent elections, particularly from 2018 to present.  I maintain my position that Donald J. Trump would have won re-election with at least 322 electoral votes, as well as a five million plus vote margin in the popular vote, in an election free of widespread, coordinated election fraud.  I encourage the reader to refrain from discrediting the premise of the following article by stating the obvious, that election predictions and primers are only valid if elections are free and fair.  If that is your primary concern, join your local election integrity groups or volunteer for Four for the Core, Phase I, for your county equivalent by sending an email to fourcore@proton.me.

A Captain’s Primer of the 2024 Electoral College Battle

President Trump likely carried the Electoral College with at least 322 electoral votes in 2020, and with 74 million votes, likely pulled some real surprises within six points and into the true field of most competitive states, like Hawai’i, Oregon, and Washington.

My “True 2020 Election Map” is below:

That map pictures 322 Trump electoral votes, including the stolen electors of Arizona (11), Nevada (6), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10), Minnesota (10), and Nebraska’s 2^ndCongressional District (1).

Well, Captain, that’s great, but what does that have to do with 2024, and why should I keep reading?

The electoral values of each state are subject to change with each census, and many do change.  Here are the differences in electoral votes for states with changes from 2020, that will remain in place for the 2024 and 2028 elections:

California (-1)

Colorado (+1)

Montana (+1)

Texas (+2)

Illinois (-1)

Michigan (-1)

Ohio (-1)

Florida (+1)

North Carolina (+1)

West Virginia (-1)

New York (-1)

Pennsylvania (-1)

It is apparent that the census is also manipulated, and does not fully reflect the shift from Democrat-run hellscapes to red states, as I’ve documented with regard to Arizona and its failure to gain even one single electoral vote for this decade, even though we are led to believe Maricopa County can gush out an additional half-million votes in a single election.  As such, it also appears that Idaho, Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina, and likely even Florida and North Carolina are shorted of at least one electoral vote each, which would provide a net swing of twelve more electoral votes in the upcoming elections and come at the expense of states like California, New Jersey, New York, and Illinois.  It also seems odd that while those states are shorted for electoral votes, Colorado and Oregon were allotted an additional elector each.  In summary, Democrat states are being propped up population-wise in the census, while Republican states are blunted.  This controls not only the gravity of the electoral college, but the representation of the U.S. House.

The 2024 Map – Starting Point

The map pictured above is the logical starting point for the 2024 campaign, and would be for any Republican, though it is war-gamed out with Trump in mind.  The states pictured in Crimson are going Republican in 2024, for Trump, and would also go Republican for any potential GOP nominee.  Combined with four of Nebraska’s five electoral votes, and one from Maine (a guarantee for Trump), that brings the Republican guaranteedelectoral vote, if everything else hit the fan, to 176.  Nebraska is floating a winner-take-all bill this legislative session that, if passed, would eliminate the threat of its 2^nd Congressional District going to a Democrat, by fraudulent or legitimate means.  That would make the GOP guarantee move to 177 electoral votes.

Conversely, the states pictured in blue are guaranteed for Joe Biden or any Democrat who runs as the 2024 nominee.  It is not that I don’t think some of them are on the cusp of, or capable of, going red, but that I believe they are engineered to automatically, regardless of Republican performance, produce a Democrat outcome.  There is no sense campaigning in them as they will not be permitted to be won until election integrity takes full root.

The election will be decided in the purple-colored states on the map.  There are three that were certified for Trump in 2020, even with all the fraud (and there was a lot of it in those three, as they were prime targets for theft) – they are North Carolina, Texas, and Alaska.  I expect those to all go to Trump, or any Republican nominee, with about 90% likelihood.  North Carolina is off its margin by nearly eight points in 2020, thanks to the mail-ballot schemes across the state, and Texas is on pace to flip by 2032 if the fraud is left unmitigated.  For 2024 analytics, Texas is almost exactly where Georgia was in 2016 – just over five points in favor of Trump.  Alaska, now operating on ranked-choice voting, should hold for Trump in a presidential race in 2024 but is at risk beginning in 2028.  If those three states are held, that brings the GOP total to 235 (three more than it was worth in 2020, with 236 being possible on the Nebraska bill mentioned earlier).  Worth noting, I have Minnesota as a 2020 Trump state, but it will not be won unless Wisconsin, further right on the political spectrum, is also won.

We will refer to the crimson and red states, as well as North Carolina, Texas, and Alaska, as the core 235 for the balance of the article.

Purple Possibilities for 270

The path to 270 is very narrow and is achievable if and only if we have a substantial breakthrough in courts or through the painstaking work of those laboring day and night for election integrity.

The quickest path to 270

Core 235

Georgia 16

Pennsylvania 19

270 Electoral Votes

With the Democrats now operating with expert proficiency in the Rust Belt with regard to mail-in ballots and ballot harvesting, should Pennsylvania and Michigan (which will not be won without Pennsylvania, which is the furthest right of the two) be engineered away from competition, we are left with these scenarios:

270 Pathways without Pennsylvania or Michigan:

Core 235
Georgia 16
Wisconsin 10

Arizona 11

272 Electoral Votes

Core 235

Georgia 16

New Hampshire 4

Arizona 11

Nevada 6

272 Electoral Votes

The Only Scenario Possible if Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona are unwinnable

Core 235
Georgia 16

New Hampshire 4

Nevada 6

Wisconsin 10

271 Electoral Votes

This article should highlight the criticality of the election integrity effort, and point out the dwindling path available for those who think we can outvote election fraud.  Georgia, Wisconsin, and Arizona all appear to be must-win states in 2024.