Florida - 2024 Election Compendium

Topic: 2024 Election Analysis

Florida 2024 Presidential Election Review

Author’s Note: All 2024 Election Reviews can be found here.

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Outcome

Trump +13.1% (+1,427,087)

My Prediction

Trump by minimum of 10.0%

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Preface

Florida used to be the swing state and a key national bellwether. Republican Calvin Coolidge won the presidency in 1924 without Florida, but starting in 1928, it had only been wrong twice (1960 and 1992) in not aligning with the winner of the presidency before the ill-fated events of 2020 occurred. Most modern political observers will never forget the 537-vote margin of the Bush-Gore race in 2000 which ultimately put the former in office and set about the makeover of the modern world as we all know it.

The Sunshine State wasn’t a mystery to me this time around, just as it wasn’t in 2020, when the traditional forecasting methods were screaming a comfortable margin for Trump (which turned out to be 3.4%), which I believe to be artificially shortened thanks to the third world conditions brought about by a Corona-election. While midterms aren’t fully predictive of forthcoming presidential elections, Florida’s statewide offices being decided by upper-teens margins in 2022 was a strong sign the Democrats were on the way to a Texas-style statewide extinction.

Trump won Florida twice when it still had a Democrat registration advantage (D+2.6% in 2016, D+0.8% in 2020). The state flipped to a Republican advantage in 2021 for the first time in history and continued to R+6.7% (a gap of more than a million registrations) in time for the 2024 presidential contest. All 67 counties shifted more Republican from four years ago:

Several counties in Florida’s Deep South region flipped to a GOP advantage, as did larger counties like Pinellas (St. Petersburg) and St. Lucie Counties. Palm Beach moved eight points more Republican, Broward six, and Miami-Dade over nine. Florida’s overall shift rightward by registration was more than 7.5% in four years, suggesting a blowout on the level of something not seen in the state since George H.W. Bush carried it by 22.4% against Democrat Michael Dukakis in 1988.

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Analysis

· Party registration shifts since 2020 (67 counties shifted toward the GOP) suggested Trump would improve in all 67 counties. The party registration indicator went a perfect 67 for 67 in Florida, with margins in all 67 more favorable to Trump than in 2020.

· Trump flipped six counties – Duval (metro Jacksonville), Pinellas (metro St. Petersburg), Hillsborough (metro Tampa), Seminole, Osceola, and Miami-Dade.

· Trump’s victory in Duval, combined with his win of Georgia, confirmed Duval as a bellwether for the Peach State dating back to 2004.

· Florida’s rightward shift accurately predicted the rightward movement of the Industrial Midwest.

· Trump’s win of Miami-Dade County, the first for a GOP presidential nominee since 1988, along with his national victory, confirmed Miami-Dade County as a Republican victory bellwether. In all eight occasions it has been won by a GOP presidential nominee it has aligned with a national victory.

· Trump’s victory in heavily Puerto Rican Osceola County, the first for a GOP candidate since 2004, proved the media got caught hoaxing once again with regard to Tony Hinchcliffe’s trash jokes.

· In 2016, Trump lost the three giant South Florida counties of Broward, Miami-Dade, and Palm Beach by a combined margin of 684,797. That number, thanks to his strong performance in Miami-Dade, shrank to 470,135 in 2020. This year, the change was astounding and shows exactly what it takes to turn Florida from a 67-county street fight to a GOP cakewalk.

· Trump easily carried the Latino vote in his new home state, posting much improved margins with Puerto Ricans, and dominant ones with voters of Cuban and Venezuelan ethnicity, who are primarily anti-communist voters who do not wish to see their new home turn into what they fled.

· Harris added ballots to Biden’s 2020 totals in just six counties (see below map) and failed to post a gain that qualifies for my highest grade, requiring a gain of 6,000 or more and with a 10% increase from the previous election. All in all, Harris lagged Biden by 614,007 total ballots in what is perhaps the most rapidly populating state in the union. Interestingly, there is no instance in modern political history in which the Democrat nominee has lost votes in Florida from one election to the next, but gained in Georgia – until 2024, that is.

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Key Counties

Broward, Miami-Dade, and Palm Beach Counties

Broward County, home to Fort Lauderdale, is by far the most significant Democrat stronghold in Florida now that Miami-Dade County has completed its transformation into the most notable urban GOP stronghold in America. Broward has also been a noted hotbed of corruption requiring Governor DeSantis’s direct intervention. Now that Florida is a safe Republican state for presidential and other statewide races, all efforts should be committed to undoing Democrat dominance in Broward, which still boasts substantial Democrat representation locally, including in the U.S. House.

Palm Beach County, if it continues its registration trend, is on pace to flip in 2028 to the GOP presidential nominee. Given that these three counties together are the reason Florida is now a Texas-level blowout state, it is logical to conclude getting back in the game in these urban counties is the only way for Democrats to make a game of things for perhaps many decades; therefore, election integrity efforts should begin here to vet the quality of voter rolls and identify likely areas of mail-in balloting manipulation that keep Democrats in power locally and boost statewide totals for presidential and U.S. House candidates. It is of absolutely no surprise to me that Florida’s recent voter roll purges have only hurt the Democrat Party.

Opportunities for Election Manipulation

Familiarize yourself with the grading criteria for my election ratings. Here is how Florida rates with regard to the most common election demerits, and its own unique traits:

· Voter ID – Florida has strict in-person Photo ID laws.

· Same Day Registration – Not authorized in Florida.

· Ballot Harvesting – A felony offense in Florida, but still likely to occur given quantity of mail ballots present in the state.

· Automatic Voter Registration – Florida does not operate Automatic Voter Registration.

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The Road Ahead

Florida is a solid red state now, and only warrants its own 2024 profile thanks to its historic significance as a swing state and because of its massive coalition shift-induced blowout for Trump. With the Latino shift toward the GOP so heavy, I fail to see how Florida will be competitive for the foreseeable future. This means local activists must ensure no stupid election bills see the floor of the legislature, such as one intended to enshrine Automatic Voter Registration. If any effort to reduce mail-in balloting (more than 3 million cast in Florida in 2024) is successful, Florida will be the envy of elections nationwide, especially since they are so well known for having almost all of their votes tabulated on Election Night, while many key states count for nearly a month.

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Final Grade and Closing Commentary

The Top 5 Election Integrity Targets in Florida are (in no order):

· Broward County

· Palm Beach County

· Miami-Dade County

· Duval County

· Hillsborough County

Florida receives a Grade of 2 – Marginal Concern – based primarily on its heavily reliance on mail-in balloting, and because it exceeds the maximum threshold of electoral votes allowable to receive a Grade of 1 – Lowest Concern.

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Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.