While many have worried about Robert F. Kennedy’s impact against President Donald Trump for the forthcoming national fiasco known as a quadrennial presidential election, I have been steadfast for nearly a year that I believe his presence in any race primarily hurts Joe Biden. There are voices I respect that disagree with me, either as a matter of influence (whose votes are getting siphoned most), or as a matter of systemic disruption (that Kennedy’s presence in the race is to serve as a narrative sponge to where potentially deleted Trump votes will go). I acknowledge them right here in the first paragraph and am thankful for their engagement in this most critical issue.
Although I’ve solidly backed what the media considers the most egregious of conspiracy theories, that the 2020 presidential election was stolen, for over three years now, I don’t dabble in most conspiracy theories because they usually involve so many moving parts and pieces that are all required to be 100% correct to uphold the hypothesis. If one span of the bridge crumbles, the entire theory is called into doubt. Therefore, while Kennedy may not be working for Trump in a direct capacity, there are four very solid items that suggest to me he is working for Trump in a de facto capacity.
Four Apparent Reasons Kennedy is Working for Trump
1) The Environmental Lobby is Begging Him to Drop Out
RFK’s bread and butter is environmental politics. In fact, when it was all the rage to predict RFK as Trump’s unity ticket running mate, I pegged his environmental extremism, and its opposing nature to Trump’s economic agenda, as one of the main reasons he wouldn’t get the call. Last week, an advertisement was released with 46 environmental extremists begging Kennedy to drop out of the 2024 race.
Those colleagues decried his campaign as one that only serves to deprive Biden, one of the weakest incumbents in history, of needed votes to ensure a second term. Given that Kennedy is a fellow green extremist, this plea isn’t made on an ideological basis. It’s being made because it is Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who will suck up the votes of Bernie Bros and college granolas in key states, and perhaps even some that yield large third-party vote shares that may be brought into competitive status – like Colorado, Minnesota, or New Hampshire.
2) Kennedy’s Ballot Access in Michigan is Suddenly a Problem
To spare you the technical details of coalition shifts and why President Trump won Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in 2016 (and should have in 2020), here it is in a nutshell: Trump held the conservatives, an electoral minority, and picked up two-time Obama voters on the issue of trade, and benefitted from less minority turnout.
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