Author’s Note: This portion of the 2024 Election Compendium will focus on the Mid-Atlantic states of Delaware and Maryland, plus Washington, D.C. New Jersey, Virginia, and North Carolina will receive their own reviews.
For all previous entries to the 2024 Election Compendium, check here.
No Republican presidential nominee has ever won Washington, D.C., which has had electoral votes since 1964, or come remotely close (Nixon received 21.6% in 1972). In 1988, George H.W. Bush carried both Delaware and Maryland, making him the last GOP nominee to take those states. Since then, it’s been largely downhill, with mostly Democrat-led massacres in the region. While Delaware was once reliably Republican like its political cousin New Jersey, Maryland has been a tough lift for most of the past century. As the Democrats have become the grow government fastest party, the D.C. collar counties in the Old Line State have shifted dramatically left from their already imposing Democrat margins, surpassing even Baltimore City’s support for Democrats in raw margin and blowing out the Eastern Shore GOP-dominant counties, along with similar counties to the west in the Appalachians.
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Both Delaware and Maryland were substantially bloated by the 2020 COVID protocols, as you will see further down in this entry. Additionally, Delaware is Joe Biden’s home state and has a bit of the home field advantage wrapped around its 2020 figures. Interestingly, I did not mark Washington, D.C., as suspect for the 2020 election seeing that its Democrat gains were minimal, and the margin of defeat was slightly less severe for Trump than it was in 2016. This year, I did not foresee Trump carrying any of the 16 electoral votes up for grabs, but thought there may be outside chance of getting Delaware inside double digits. Larry Hogan, the imposter Republican and former governor of Maryland, ran for U.S. Senate in what was perhaps the only significant race people were watching (and notably, the race Senate GOP bureaucrats diverted funds to instead of backing candidates who could have won elsewhere).
Delaware and Maryland had shifts in registration toward the Republican Party, suggesting progress for Trump and influencing my predictions:
· Delaware from D+19.9% in 2020 to D+18.4% in 2024
· Maryland from D+30.2% in 2020 to D+28.5% in 2024
Washington, D.C., devoid of Republican influence, drifted a half point left in party registration.
· Washington, D.C., from D+70.5% in 2020 to D+71.0% in 2024
Analysis
· In Maryland, Trump improved in 23 of 24 county equivalents (which includes the independent City of Baltimore), despite only 19 trending in registration toward the Republican Party since 2020. The party registration indicator was 18 for 24 in predicting the trajectory of elections in the Old Line State, with five of the misses being from counties shifting Democrat in registration by nudging right in the vote (Anne Arundel, Carroll, Charles as percentage margin but not raw vote, Frederick, and Howard). Garrett County in the state’s far west was the only county with a GOP registration shift that moved left in voting (in both percentage margin of victory and raw margin of victory).
· All three counties in Delaware reflected a shift in registrations toward the GOP. New Castle and Kent Counties turned out more favorably for Trump in losing margins than in 2020, but Sussex County, the most conservative county in the state, was won by Trump by a smaller percentage, though by a modest increase in raw vote margin. The party registration indicator was 2 for 3 in Delaware by percentage margin. I will dig deeper into Sussex County further down in this entry.
· Washington, D.C., gave Harris a margin of victory 3.0% weaker than Biden’s, moving the Capital to the right and against the registration shift, albeit one of just a half-point. In situations like that, it is difficult to build on margin if even the slightest coalition shift (in this case, working-class minorities in D.C.) takes places. Similar impact can be found in landslide Republican counties in states like Nebraska or Kansas that shifted left in margin even if the Republican registration trend intensified.
· Party registration indicator was 20 for 28 in predicting election shifts at the county level (including D.C.). Six of the misses shifted Democrat by registration but moved toward Trump by percentage; two shifted Republican, but moved left in percentage margin (Garrett County, Maryland, and Sussex County, Delaware).
· Harris lost votes from Biden’s totals in 16 of 28 counties (D.C. included). She completely bombed in Baltimore (City) and Prince George’s Counties, two Democrat strongholds in Maryland, so badly that she came in below Hillary Clinton’s 2016 vote count (she also came in below Clinton in Somerset County on the state’s Eastern Shore). She also came in short of Biden’s 2020 counts in New Castle and Kent Counties, Delaware, as well as Washington, D.C.
· Frederick County, Maryland, which backed every GOP nominee but one from 1944 through 2016 (including Trump in 2016), backed the Democrat for the second presidential election in a row, and had the second highest gain (+4,734) of the region profiled in this entry. Trump actually outgained that number narrowly, but still lost the county by 8.8%, only slightly improved from the 9.6% margin observed in 2020.
· The largest Harris gain in this region was in Sussex County, Delaware. She added 8,154 ballots over Biden’s 2020 count; that is a much smaller gain than Biden’s leap of 17,349 in 2020, but enough to send the county, the only one Trump carried in Delaware, to the left by 0.3%. This is also one of the largest county gains in the entire country for Harris. This county is filling up with north-easterners seeking a better tax situation and quality of life (over 40,000 new residents in each of the last two census), but this total is curious to me for several reasons:
Trump continues to pile on new votes. He added 10,492 in 2020, when the county shifted 8.9% more Republican than it was in 2012. He added 8,619 in 2020 but lost 10.8% in margin of victory thanks to Biden’s enormous COVID-induced gains. This year, he added 9,795 net new votes, winning the county by more votes than he did in 2020, but backtracked again in margin despite the GOP registration shift.
The GOP registration shift continues to accelerate, and in 2016 it accurately captured the transformation of the county into GOP landslide territory; somehow, the last two results in Sussex fail to align remotely with registration trends, despite Trump’s significant and consistent gains:
Since the 2016 election, the GOP has increased its membership by 19,754 members and added 18,414 net presidential votes in the two ensuing elections. Democrats have increased their membership by 11,528 yet added 25,503 net presidential votes even as the county has shifted Republican as a percentage. This leads me to believe Sussex County likely has organized ballot collection rings designed to swing local races and transform the county away from Republican stronghold status under the guise of massive growth. Keep in mind, Florida, North Carolina, and South Carolina are also growing, and Democrats are being left in the dust.
· The collapse in Harris votes in Prince George’s and Montgomery Counties in Maryland, Baltimore City, and New Castle County, Delaware, are telling signs that I am correct in my assessment that they were massively “fortified” in 2020 to produce the 81 million votes narrative, even in non-competitive states. It is also suggestive that no major effort was undertaken in this region to produce unrealistic vote totals in 2024, although the capacity to do so remains in place based on the below information:
Opportunities for Election Manipulation
Familiarize yourself with the grading criteria for the following ratings. Here is how Maryland, Delaware, and Washington, D.C., stack up with regard to the most common demerits.
· Voter ID – Maryland and Washington, D.C., do not require Voter ID of any type. Delaware has some identification requirements, although not photo ID.
· Same Day Registration – Allowed in Maryland and Washington, D.C.
· Ballot Harvesting – Washington, D.C., does not specify anything about ballot harvesting, meaning it is open season there, and Delaware and Maryland have provisions that provide no real obstacle against it. Delaware was allowed to operate its old mail-in balloting system after a court reversal earlier this year struck down a drastic overhaul.
· Ranked Choice Voting – None of these ran their 2024 elections with RCV, but Washington, D.C., voters foolishly approved the ballot measure to institute it going forward.
· Automatic Voter Registration – Maryland, Delaware, and Washington, D.C., all operate AVR, which is a blue state hallmark that floods rolls with ineligible or duplicated entries.
The Pathway Ahead
Of the three electoral jurisdictions profiled here, Delaware is the only one remotely competitive, and that’s probably a good thing. A Republican capable of making a state like Maryland even ballpark-close is a flop like Larry Hogan, who would do nothing to wrangle in the leviathan and, in fact, would do just the opposite. As long as the GOP remains aligned with economic populism and an “us against them” mentality (a good thing, in my opinion), nothing will change with regard to these 16 electoral votes.
Delaware is too heavily impacted by New Castle County and to make matters worse, its only conservative county (Sussex) is filling up with blue state refugees who don’t want to be too far from their northeastern origins, but want to benefit from the sun, sand, and tax situation. Maryland, while possessing some seriously MAGA counties on the outskirts of the state, is dominated by its blue core of Prince George’s, Montgomery, and Baltimore Counties, along with Baltimore City, and with the white population there heavily dependent on the growth of the federal government, don’t expect a change.
Washington, D.C. – well, the problem was giving it electoral votes in the first place. It has never come close to backing the GOP presidential nominee, and most certainly never will. The GOP is infinitely more likely to take back all New England before it is to flip Maryland and Washington, D.C.
Final Grades and Closing Commentary
The Top 5 Election Integrity Targets in the Mid-Atlantic are (in no order):
· Sussex County, DE
· New Castle County, DE
· Montgomery County, MD
· Prince George’s County, MD
· Anne Arundel County, MD
Most Suspect Outcome
· Sussex County, Delaware – presidential margins, particularly for the last two elections considering consistent population growth, Republican Party registration edge continuing to build, and the absence of home-state Joe Biden on the 2024 ticket.
Delaware receives a Grade of 2 – Marginal Concern – based on its demerits and modest indication of concentrated manipulation in 2024.
Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.
Hard to believe Sussex County is not squarely "R".
I agree about MD, and better to not have a Republican Governor than to have Hogan.
Hopefully, D.O.G.E. will succeed in reducing the gross over population of Federal Employees in the target areas. Barry expanding, and more recently FJB adding thousands of government workers has had a very negative impact on all things Mid-Atlantic.
Hard to believe Sussex County is not squarely "R".
I agree about MD, and better to not have a Republican Governor than to have Hogan.
Hopefully, D.O.G.E. will succeed in reducing the gross over population of Federal Employees in the target areas. Barry expanding, and more recently FJB adding thousands of government workers has had a very negative impact on all things Mid-Atlantic.
I've been doggedly pounding Steve Bannon to get Trump's ear on his War Room platforms:
"Hire Seth to spearhead election reforms."