My 2024 Wisconsin 72 County Trend Forecast

Topic: 2024 Election Forecast

Situation

Last month, I pointed out that August 2020 polling of Wisconsin was 6 points off the final certified margin, which of course was substantially off where Wisconsin should have been in a fair race, with Trump the victor in comfortable fashion.  Currently, polling is all over the place, with plenty of virtually tied polls having been released, plus many stuck out in stupid land like we saw in 2020, which are completely incapable of resembling reality with Trump poised to blow out neighboring Iowa by once-unfathomable proportions.

A clean Pennsylvania may be the easiest Trump win of the big three blue collar states in the “Trump Belt” (Pennsylvania-Michigan-Wisconsin), but considering the election fraud equation, Wisconsin most certainly is the most likely to go to Trump if he could only carry one of them.  It shares many overlapping demographics with Iowa, which currently has all 99 of its counties on a Republican registration shift since the 2020 race, and it (Wisconsin) is the only one of the big three that doesn’t have Automatic Voter Registration.  Furthermore, four of the last six presidential elections in Wisconsin have been decided within one point.  It is a safe bet that no one, especially Harris, will be carrying Wisconsin by blowout margins like some propaganda polls suggest.

Before you get started, familiarize yourself with my county classification model.  Everything you need to know about what follows is contained in that free article, which gives greater insight into Wisconsin itself since it was used as the example.  And yes, this model accounts for the current state of election manipulation.

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Crimson Counties (53)

Nearly three-quarters of the state’s counties fall under the Crimson banner, which favors Trump tremendously because these are set to mirror the movement of Iowa, which is hard to the right, and nowhere near as generous to Democrats as they were in 2008, or even 2012, when Obama carried Wisconsin in a blowout, and in a comfortable win, respectively.  I expect Harris’s maximum vote output in almost all of these to be Biden’s 2020 total, and in all likelihood, given lack of Automatic Voter Registration, organic trending away from Democrats and toward Trump, and greater scrutiny she will drop in support, which will only amplify Trump’s already huge margins.

Fixing Harris at Biden’s numbers or adjusting slightly up where appropriate, I still find Trump gaining roughly 48,905 in margin in these 53 counties, or more than double the margin between Biden and Trump statewide in 2020.

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Republican Counties (5)