Wisconsin - 2024 Election Compendium

Topic: 2024 Election Analysis

Wisconsin 2024 Presidential Election Review

Author’s Note: All 2024 Election Reviews can be found here.

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Outcome

Trump +0.9% (+29,397)

My Prediction

Trump +2.3% (+75,855)

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Preface

My strongest advice to you, before proceeding further, is to fully review my entry covering the 2024 election in Iowa. It is critical for you to understand the outcome of that election in Wisconsin’s political cousin prior to immersing yourself in this much more complex analysis, which should leap off the page to you as you observe what did not happen in the state featuring a legitimate battle for electoral votes.

Although many states make up the Democrat “blue wall,” a massive heaping of electoral votes that have been largely gone to the same party since 1992, three states in the Industrial and Upper Midwest make up what were referred to as the 2024 version of the blue wall – Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Wisconsin voted to the right of the former two in both of Trump’s previous presidential runs but wound up the furthest left of the trio once all ballots were finally counted this time around.

Wisconsin is hard to poll even when pollsters aren’t busy carrying water and playing narrative control games; however, I knew the Badger State was Trump’s to lose once I saw peripheral polling data in a Trump vs. Biden race coming out of Iowa from the now humbled Ann Selzer. Trump’s lead was simply so big next door there was no possible way he could lose Wisconsin, which barely kept Trump from carrying its 10 electoral votes in 2020 by throwing everything, including the kitchen sink, at him. Harris only carried 13 counties, including 8 by fewer than 1,500 votes in margin. Democrats have just two counties, Dane (which contains the state capital of Madison plus the massive University of Wisconsin) and Milwaukee, which must be maxed out to compete with the overwhelming rightward shift of the working-class counties statewide, which largely resemble Iowa’s, and give the Democrat nominee a shot at victory.

My call of Trump +2.3% was based on taking an average of my pessimistic model (which came to fruition), showing Trump carrying Wisconsin by 1.3%, and the registrations model considering Iowa’s massive GOP registration wave, showing Trump winning Wisconsin by 3.3%. This meant, despite the previous two elections winding up with Wisconsin to the right of the other two industrial “blue wall” states, that I had Wisconsin winding up furthest left of the three. That is ultimately where it wound up, but the correct order may never be known thanks to the coordinated effort to manipulate results that will be documented in the balance of this report.

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Analysis

· 68 of 72 (94.4%) counties in Wisconsin shifted toward Trump in terms of percentage margin, meaning he either won them by a higher percentage than he did in 2020 (or in the case of Sauk County, flipped it), or lost them by a smaller percentage. All three of the W-O-W Counties (Washington, Ozaukee, and Waukesha), a trio of traditional GOP suburban strongholds shifted left, but by less than two points each. Door County, which juts out into Lake Michigan, moved 0.8% left. In this sense, Wisconsin’s county shifts closely parallel Iowa’s (98 of 99 to the right, or 99.0%), with 166 of 171 counties (97.1%) combined in both states moving to the right.

· With the artificially tightened margin in Wisconsin, five of the past seven presidential elections have been decided within a single point.

· Democrats cannot win the state without posting dominant margins in Milwaukee and Dane Counties combined. The chart below captures how effectively these two counties have worked in tandem for collective margin in each of Trump’s three races:

· As for the rest of the state’s vast, mostly wooded hinterlands, I expected Trump to flip Door, Green, Portage, and Sauk Counties. Thanks to likely fortification, he only flipped Sauk, but got within 466 ballots in Door, 60 in Green, and 516 in Portage (a win in Portage would have been the first GOP presidential win since Eisenhower’s in 1956), and even came within 421 ballots of a flip of Ashland County, which wasn’t on my radar. The 70 counties outside of Dane and Milwaukee delivered the requisite winning margins for Trump, outside the margin of fraud, as depicted below:

· While Harris slightly lagged Joe Biden’s statewide ballot counts in Michigan and Pennsylvania, she gained 2.2% on his 2020 count in Wisconsin (+37,363), losing the state by an eyelash despite Trump having won enough votes (1,697,626) to equal 46.4% of the state’s entire pre-Election Day voter registration count (3,658,236). Harris only lagged Biden’s ballot count in 24 of 72 counties, and had her highest raw net vote gains in Eau Claire, Brown, Waukesha, and Dane (+13,874) Counties. The map below appears to highlight where ballot harvesting rings are most likely not in operation, such as the far southwestern portion of the state that overlaps with Iowa’s demographics most closely, the far north region of the state, and in urban areas south of Milwaukee, such as Kenosha and Racine Counties, where Harris lagged Biden.

· How should things have turned out in Wisconsin? If you haven’t read my review of Iowa yet, now is a good time to do just that. While Harris lagged Biden in 24 Wisconsin counties, she didn’t lag Hillary Clinton’s 2016 ballot counts in any of the Badger’s State’s 72 counties; however, she managed to gain ballots in just 2 Iowa Counties in minuscule amounts, and lagged Clinton in 52 counties there:

· Iowa and Wisconsin, with a gap of 12.4% between the two, finished further apart than they have in any presidential election since 1936, when Franklin Roosevelt beat Alf Landon in both, by 11.7% and 33.5%, respectively. The two states had been just 8.8% apart on average in the two Trump races, and curiously, Trump had a clear majority of the vote in Wisconsin when the race was called for him, suggesting he should have won the state by at least 4 points:

· The map contrasting Iowa and Wisconsin’s 2024 election shifts at the county level suggests strongly that no effort, other than Ann Selzer’s maliciously fraudulent polling, was made to prevent Iowa from morphing into a Trump superstate, while every effort was made to keep Wisconsin producing Democrat electoral votes. Like Pennsylvania and Michigan, detail from smaller counties (especially obvious when looking what happened in small Iowa counties) tells me ballot harvesting rings know exactly which registrations can be tabbed for a mail-in ballot request (561,616 mail ballots were counted this year in Wisconsin) and subsequently harvested over a lengthy return window:

· To highlight the corruption of Milwaukee County, in which Harris lost just 0.4% of Biden’s ballot count (-1,271), here are comparable figures for industrial counties in the regional working-class urban counties, which were used to analyze Harris’s performance in Macomb County, Michigan, and Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, which preserved most of their counterfeit 2020 ballot count:

o Erie County, NY loss of 18,169 (-7.0%)

o Cuyahoga County, OH loss of 39,792 (-9.6%) – lowest Democrat ballot count since 2000

o Lucas County, OH loss of 9,091 (-7.9%) – lowest Democrat ballot count since 1996

o Mahoning County, OH loss of 7,005 (-12.2%) – lowest Democrat ballot count since 1932

o Marion County, IN loss of 26,053 (-10.5%)

o Lake County, IN loss of 15,784 (-12.6%) – lowest Democrat ballot count since 2000

o Cook County, IL loss of 278,152 (-16.1%) – lowest Democrat ballot count since 2004

Milwaukee County likely has at least 21,000 fraudulent ballots for Harris alone, assessing Erie County’s (New York) 7.0% loss only, or nearly enough to alter the outcome of the U.S. Senate race on its own.

· With no Automatic Voter Registration available to make cheating easier, elections are primarily corrupted by Same Day Voter Registration, especially in Milwaukee and Dane Counties, where early voting suggested urban and minority turnout was depressed. I presented the following data just 11 days after Election Day in St. Croix County, Wisconsin, at an event organized by the county GOP and great patriots and friends, Ann and Craig Sykora: