Four Courses for Fall: Scenario 4 (The 1861 Scenario)

Topic: Elections

Before reading further, familiarize yourself with the following introductory piece:

Link to Four Courses Orientation

And then, review the first course of action, Scenario 1: Trump Squeaker, presented two week in these pages, the second, Scenario 2: Trump Blowout, presented last week, and the third, Scenario 3: 2020 Redux, from earlier this week.

What follows is the final of four scenarios I consider most likely to occur regarding the 2024 presidential election.  This is an even more dangerous scenario for the Republic than the previous one, which is a virtual do-over of the 2020 outcome.

Scenario 4

The 1861 Scenario

The fourth scenario, which falls under the two most likely scenarios outlining a Biden “victory,” recognizes Scenario 3 is not going to be believed by the public and allows the bull to charge the cape, running up equally unbelievable margins and framing the bull for the cheat, triggering mass confusion and a contingent election. 

The previous scenario, Scenario 3: 2020 Redux, describes a repeat of the 2020 race, in which an apparent Trump victory is turned back by mail-in balloting abuse, unlimited time to alter the count, and a non-stop media onslaught to justify the upending of more than a century of established trends, indicators, bellwethers, and predictors.  The first point made under “Reasons It Wouldn’t Happen” goes as follows:

No one will believe it.  If those at the levers of power have expended so much energy to conceal and justify the results of the 2020 race, then this one will make that election look like a display of national unity and togetherness, back when no major party candidate could achieve more than 82 million ballots and turnouts were low in comparison.

Simply put, it will take more than 90-95 million Biden ballots to slick out the numbers nationally, and numbers in the decisive states that far surpass the ability for two parties to climb in states that aren’t growing - namely in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.  A more nuanced approach to preventing Trump from taking the White House would require using procedure, media assistance, and the art of projection to cover up actions that are detrimental to the continuation of this Republic, which supposedly functions on consent of the governed and the belief that our representatives govern with our interests in mind.

North Carolina plays a pivotal role in this scenario, as does the fact that we’ve never had matching presidential maps from one election to the next; therefore, with more than two centuries of precedent informing my assessment, I believe the 2024 map will differ from the 2020 map, even if only slightly.  North Carolina and Texas are the only two states that give me pause as to whether they can be Georgia’d (snatched when not expected, and when we aren’t looking for them to flip), and of Trump’s 2020 certified slate, North Carolina is not only most likely to get snatched, but is actively being targeted by the Biden campaign despite every indicator suggesting Trump should win it with ease.

That means in order to have a different map from 2020, it will be Biden states going to Trump, serving the dual purpose of getting a lot of corrupt officials off the hook, but also lending legitimacy to the phrase, “see, our elections are fair, Trump won Arizona and even flipped a state that has been blue for two decades!”

If Trump holds North Carolina, which appears likely, he can be allowed to take both Arizona and Georgia, getting the Maricopa Board and Brad Raffensperger out of the conversation for the first time in four years.  Those states, unlike the midwestern Trump belt, are Republican states, full of random Republican lunch groups, book clubs, Bible studies, and women’s organizations.  They were ripped away from Trump with no statistical justification in 2020 and having them back will render many arguments moot for what follows here.  There is even room for Trump to have Nevada, which is moving toward him with major momentum thanks to his surge with the Latino working class, which makes up more than a quarter of the state’s population.  Trump would be dangerously close to a majority but, assuming the blue wall holds, just short, and the margins in Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada would need to be kept within a few points and blamed on minorities coming Trump’s way.  That scenario looks like this:

If North Carolina can be snatched, which is made possible by almost no one, including Michael Whatley, being willing to investigate a suspiciously tight 1.3% Trump margin, Trump can have Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin, potentially even New Hampshire if seas get rough.  That scenario looks like this:

The above map makes it a very tall task to complain about election fraud, given that four of the six contested states in 2020 would have come back to Trump, including Nevada, which hasn’t been won by a GOP nominee since George W. Bush held it in 2004, when it was much whiter and more Republican.

This scenario leaves two (the second map) or three (the first and most likely map) states to control as far as vote tabulation and narrative go.  All three of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are Trump states by more than 6% in a fair 2024 race, and my numbers suggest potentially much more comfortable than that (think Reagan numbers).  The totals flying across your screen on Election Night 2020 showing huge Trump leads in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and a comfortable one in Wisconsin, are much closer to reality than people think, and fully punctuate why the mail-in quasi-election had to occur in the first place.

To sidestep that this time around, the bull is allowed to charge the cape, and this time, with Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada (and perhaps Wisconsin in the case of the first map) held by narrow margins, the bull takes Michigan and Pennsylvania by mid-double digits.  Observers everywhere are shocked at the margins, which dwarf the polls showing a close race, even narrow Trump leads within the margin of error.

That is when the trap springs.  After four years of being accused of manipulating the presidential election, with many smaller elections rigged inside their own party by their own party members, the Democrats frame Trump for defrauding the election and “find” planted evidence of fraudulent Trump ballots in astonishing quantities - either in the form of electronic ballots they’ve inserted themselves, or by framing his “get out the vote” team for illegal ballot harvesting in states like Pennsylvania, which still forbid it even though Democrats are clearly harvesting like their elections depend on it (because they most certainly do).

The media goes ballistic.  Empty suits in Congress and throughout the states in question cry “foul,” and a national effort to prevent certification of the states that would put Trump over 270 electoral votes gets underway.  The goal is a contingent election in the House, which would require weak Republicans beholden to Uniparty control to break with their parties and support another candidate, presumably Joe Biden - the staged victim of election manipulation.

Reasons It Would Happen

1)        If it sounds absurd, don’t forget we just saw Trump convicted of politically motivated felony charges to sideline his campaign.  This came out of thin air, and is blatantly political, and the public knows it.  It took years to hatch that plan and has taken more than a year to proceed to the convictions from when we first found out about it last Spring.  Everything this bureaucracy does is based on lies and on misleading the public.

2)        The courts have repeatedly shown their unwillingness to do the heavy lifting and get serious about election fraud impacting major executive races, such as those for the presidency or various governorships.  Why would that change now?  That allows Trump to get within 10 votes of the electoral majority needed, whereas he was pushed all the way down to 232 electoral votes in 2020 to provide necessary buffer in case a big state, like Pennsylvania, got overturned.

3)        As I’ve written here, outracing Trump to the top in states with tremendous momentum for Trump will lead to ridiculous, Nintendo-like vote totals for both candidates that will need to dwarf the already unbelievable numbers from 2020; to balance those states out, many millions more fictitious ballots will need to fill safe red and safe blue states to tilt margins accordingly.  This is the alternate plan to achieve the same outcome (no Trump), yet create doubt within the public as to which election narrative to believe.

Reasons It Wouldn’t Happen

1)        Too many pieces to control makes it difficult to pull off intricate plans like this, especially if a completely unexpected upset occurs and puts Trump over 270 anyway. 

2)        Powder is kept dry, and one of the other solutions, including ones that allow for a Trump victory, are put into play.

3)        As I’ve written in my predictions, an effort to obfuscate results may rely upon violence altering the outcome of the election, rather than a plan to use projection to frame President Trump and his voters.

Immediate Impacts

1)        This is by far the most damaging and consequential outcome for this election, and that is saying something because Scenario 3 is almost equally unacceptable and damaging.  This scenario would require even more deception and trickery and would bring down a lot of innocent people to sell it to the public.

2)        Substantial unrest would be a near certainty, especially with two months separating election festivities from a potential contingent election held in Congress (the House selects the President and the Senate selects the Vice President).  Members of Congress would be subject to substantial influence, including threats and bribery, to vote against Trump and his V.P. pick.

3)        Quisling Republicans like Larry Hogan would immediately side against Trump and provide yet another look under the hood of the Washington, D.C., party, making it easier than ever before (if that were even possible) to spot lawmakers and other officials who oppose advancing the interests of their own country.

4)        Domestically speaking, the most dangerous window of time since 1861 would open up as soon as this plan became evident. Sidebar commentary about the breakup of the Republic or secession will become mainstream, from Florida to Alaska.

Conclusion

                  It sounds like a reach, but so does using a virus to shut down the entire world and change the rules for an election on the fly.  If I would have written about that in November 2019, you’d have recommended I see a shrink. This plan is the best way for the enemy to absorb a massive Trump onslaught, give back some states that were ripped off, and still create doubt in the minds of a public that gets way too much of its information from pop culture, celebrities, and the news media.

Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.