How Would the 2024 Race Change with a Fair Census and Electoral College Map?

Topic: Elections

One year ago this month, I crafted a very time-consuming piece of analytical research outlining the manipulation of the decennial United States census, particularly those conducted in 2010 and 2020.  In that article, I outlined my belief that the manipulation of the electoral college has given a generic Democrat presidential nominee an improper advantage of as many as 13 electoral votes before the assessment of “swing” states. 

Another article I wrote that same month outlines what I believe, in consideration of electoral engineering, are the four most likely Trump pathways to victory in 2024.  I have arrived at the conclusion, depicted below, that Trump is all but guaranteed 176 electoral votes, and Biden 191, just for drawing breath and being on the ballots at the same time.  While I believe North Carolina is in range to be Georgia’d, it is an increasingly imposing task for the Biden camp now that it has to overcome voter ID, a shift in black and suburban voters toward Trump, and polling that is exactly in line with where I would expect North Carolina to be after 15 years of a pro-Republican Party registration trend in over 90% of its counties.

That means Trump is most likely entering Election Day sitting on 235 electoral votes, with Biden at 191 and leaning toward 211 with the “stretch” states of Virginia, New Mexico, and Maine tipping into his column, which I think would only be won by Trump in 2024 in an absolute blowout thanks to the problems caused by urban corruption, Automatic Voter Registration, and reckless mail-in balloting.

The most expedient pathway to a Trumpian victory is to hold the Core 235 and win Georgia and Pennsylvania – two states that are slam dunk Trump states to anyone who knows how to read authentic political indicators but are in peril thanks to the issues listed above with the “stretch” states.  Georgia is a must-win in all of my victory scenarios, as all other “swing” states listed in the graphic are fundamentally harderRepublican wins in the modern elections era than the Peach State.  Losing, or rather being forbidden to win Pennsylvania, likely rules out its political cousin Michigan, too, and requires combinations involving the other five states in the “swing” category (and Minnesota is a long shot of long shots thanks to the actions of its Democrat trifecta).

What would an authentic electoral map with census corrections look like, awarding North Carolina, Texas, and Alaska to Trump, and Virginia, New Mexico, and the two electors belonging to Maine’s statewide victor to Biden?