Inside the Electoral Hell of Canadian Statehood

Topic: Perspective

Now that you’ve made it past the title of this article, let me tell you what it is not. This article is not a hate piece about Canada; in fact, most of my jokes about nationality are French in nature, and about France, not French Canadians. This piece does not blame any of my 448 Canadian SubStack subscribers for the mess Justin Trudeau and his handlers have created over the past decade, nor does it wish for continued political malaise for our northern neighbors. Additionally, the first Major League Baseball game my parents ever took me to was in Toronto, at the old Exhibition Stadium, so perhaps I will connect with my inner child as I sift through something of great geopolitical magnitude.

This piece, like all others that have come before it, aims to get to simple facts and actionable truth. Just so you Canucks understand I have no axe to grind against you, let me tell you a few things I appreciate about your country before getting into the always divisive topic of electoral politics:

In June 2012, I relocated from Arizona to Alaska while serving in the U.S. Army and got to see your spectacular wild country in the Northern Rockies. Below is a photo from Muncho Lake, British Columbia, just a stone’s throw from the Yukon Territory:

Of course, what nineties kid didn’t appreciate watching Larry Walker, an underrated Hall of Fame outfielder?

Finally, speaking of nineties, who didn’t pay homage to Calgary and the Hart family by locking their friends into the Sharpshooter?

If you’re a President Trump supporter, I’m sure you’ve enjoyed the frequent harassment he’s dished out to Justin from Canada and the global elite in saying that he is going to take over Canada and make it a state to help streamline economic relationships between our two nations. This, of course, has spun up all sorts of interesting online commentary, and thanks to the proliferation of social media, you can read that from a national defense, economic, or environmental perspective. Apparently, more than half of Canada’s roughly 37 million people wish to know more about U.S. statehood. This idea may not be as far-flung as you thought.

It sounds really cool, that’s for sure. With 5,000 air miles between Ellesmere Island and the Big Island of Hawaii, there’s enough exploring to do to keep everyone busy. The new national boundaries would include most of North America, and if Trump got his way with Greenland, the continent could collectively wall off the cartel-run nations until they comply, or just take them over too and build the walls where we need them. You would gaze upon the map of the American superstate with the same awestruck wonder you did when you looked at those Cold War-era classroom maps and couldn’t believe your eyes when you saw the Soviet Union’s sheer size:

Unfortunately, dear friends, this is where the fun ends. Adding Canada as a U.S. state, or more correctly as a group of Canadian states (which it would most certainly be), will destroy American politics and make you think today’s situation is spectacular. If you’re thinking the electoral future is bright because Trump’s new GOP brand is siphoning the votes of millions of American minorities in all the key states, then I’m going to demonstrate to you in this article what adding millions of white liberals to the math will do to our chances of electing a populist nationalist of any stripe, let alone one on the political right.

Mr. President, if one of your advisors hands you this article, please keep up the trolling, but understand the political ramifications that would come from adding several Canadian states to the Union.

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Setting the Stage

Every state (and Washington, D.C.) begins with 3 electoral votes – one for each U.S. Senator and one vote for an at-large U.S. House Representative. Based on population apportionment (which is another corrupted process), states then receive additional U.S. House seats, which are added to the electoral vote tally. Two examples:

North Dakota – 2 U.S. Senators, 1 U.S. House Representative = 3 Electoral Votes

Texas – 2. U.S. Senators, 38 U.S. House Representatives = 40 Electoral Votes

There are currently 538 electoral votes in circulation – 435 U.S. House Reps, 100 Senators, and 3 freebies for Washington, D.C. (a stupid move). This has been the case in every election since 1964, when D.C. began sending Democrat electoral votes in. Adding Canada will require expanding the count of electoral votes, which means “270 to Win” will no longer be a thing. It will now be “280 to Win” after the electoral college bloats to 559 electoral votes.

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Canada – Overview

Canada has 10 Provinces:

Alberta

Population: 4,262,635

Comparable State Population: Oregon

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British Columbia

Population: 5,000,879

Comparable State Population: Alabama

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Manitoba

Population: 1,342,153

Comparable State Population: Maine

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New Brunswick

Population: 775,610

Comparable State Population: North Dakota

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Newfoundland and Labrador

Population: 510,550

Comparable State Population: Wyoming

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Nova Scotia

Population: 969,383

Comparable State Population: South Dakota

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Ontario

Population: 14,223,942

Comparable State Population: Pennsylvania

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Prince Edward Island

Population: 154,331

Comparable State Population: None (roughly equal to Charleston, South Carolina)

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Quebec

Population: 8,501,833

Comparable State Population: Virginia

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Saskatchewan

Population: 1,132,505

Comparable State Population: Montana

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Canada also has three territories – Northwest Territories, Nunavut, and Yukon Territory, all with extremely tiny populations that would fit inside a few blocks of New York City.

Getting to the electoral math:

· I am assuming some negotiations, given the left-leaning politics of Canada, will be undertaken by Republicans, who stand to get their asses hammered politically for a half-century, if not longer, for bringing Canada on board. Rather than 10 provinces being admitted as states, I think this number will get down to 7.

· New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island are admitted as one state nearly equal in population to Idaho.

· Newfoundland and Labrador (one province with two names) gets merged with Quebec, forming a single state slightly smaller than New Jersey by population.

· 7 new states equals 21 new electoral votes added to the existing pool of 538, for a total of 559 electoral votes, meaning “280 To Win” rather than 270.

Here are the electoral votes allotted to each new state if we base them off population comparables:

· State of Ontario (ON) 21

· State of New Quebec (NQ) 13

· State of British Columbia (BC) 9

· State of Alberta (AB) 8

· State of Manitoba (MB) 4

· State of New Scotia (NS) 4

· State of Saskatchewan (SK) 4

Total 63 Electoral Votes out of 559 Total

I’ll worry about how they’re going to vote near the end of the article. For now, I need to stretch 496 electoral votes out over the original 50 states plus Washington, D.C. That will require me to strip out 42 electoral votes that had to be applied to Canada from the donor pool.

Here is the electoral vote allotment for the seven new American states from the former nation of Canada:

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Author’s Note: Changes to existing electoral vote apportionment are subject to my arbitrary evaluation system, which can be understood more effectively by reading this initial criticism of the U.S. Census Bureau’s corrupted 2020 count.

Republican Strongholds

The states above are all states Trump won by more than 5.0%. Thanks to having to squeeze in Canada, the following states are likely going to take a ding of one electoral vote, despite higher growth relative to that of blue states:

· Alabama

· Arizona

· Arkansas

· Florida

· Indiana

· Iowa

· Kansas

· Kentucky

· Louisiana

· Mississippi

· Missouri

· Nebraska

· Ohio

· Oklahoma

· South Carolina

· Tennessee

· Texas

· West Virginia

The GOP nominee in the first election after Canadian statehood will start off with 212 electoral votes out of 280 needed to win (75.7%).

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Democrat Strongholds

The blue states above are all states Harris won by 5.0% or more, and they total up to 191 electoral votes in the post-Canadian statehood electoral map, or 68.2% of the way to a majority of electoral votes under the new system. The following states take a hit of at least one electoral vote, presuming President Trump strikes a deal to not count illegal aliens for apportionment:

· California (5)

· Colorado

· Connecticut

· Hawaii

· Illinois (2)

· Maryland

· Massachusetts

· New Jersey

· New Mexico

· New York (2)

· Oregon

· Rhode Island

· Virginia

· Washington

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Decisive States

8 states, plus Nebraska’s 2^nd Congressional District, were decided within 5.0% in the 2024 election. Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota drop an electoral vote each, and thanks to having to fit Canada in, none of the rapidly growing Sun Belt States gain electoral votes.

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Canada – Red or Blue?

Before we start dishing out decisive states to see who gets to 280, let’s figure out where the 63 electoral votes allotted to the new Canadian states are going to land. Remember, we have the following starting point:

Republican 212

Democrat 191

And in my expert opinion…