Wisconsin - Trump v. Harris Voter Registration Index Forecast Model

Topic: 2024 Election Forecast

A lead-in on Voter Registration by Party analysis, from my Voter Registration Index Forecast Model preview of Arizona:

Voter Registration by Party is the most accurate of all indicators in assessing the trajectory of upcoming presidential elections in a county or state.  The logic goes like this: if a young black man registers to vote as a Democrat in Philadelphia in August 2008, who do you think he is voting for?  If a white, non-college factory worker from Johnstown, Pennsylvania, switches from Democrat to Republican in September 2016, who do you think he is voting for? If you chose Barack Obama and Donald Trump, respectively, your thinking is correct.

Critics of this theory like to say, “you don’t have to vote Republican just because you’re a Republican,” and to some extent, that is correct.  It takes a little discernment to understand each county and its intricacies.  Please read my pieces on Westmoreland County, Pennsylvania, and last week’s introduction to the 2024 Voter Registration Index Forecast Model, featuring Pinal County, Arizona.

Wisconsin, another vital state for Trump’s likelihood of reaching 270 or more electoral votes, does not have voter registration by party.  Such estimates from states not registering voters by party must be inferred from states that do have it, like when I used Duval County, Florida, to predict how Georgia likely aligns this year.  If Trump holds all his certified 2020 electoral votes, which is likely, he has 235 electoral votes, and adding just Pennsylvania and Georgia would put him at an even 270, and a victory.  In that scenario, Trump wouldn’t need Wisconsin, but if either Pennsylvania or Georgia is “fortified” again, Arizona and Wisconsin would win it for Trump if he got the non-fortified one of Pennsylvania and Georgia.

Trend is a powerful thing to overcome, and with a narrow win in Wisconsin in 2016 and a “fortified” loss of 20,682 ballots in 2020, four more years of working class realignment and urban decay has positioned the state to go to Trump on election mechanics alone according to my pessimistic forecast, which shows Trump likely to carry it by 1.3% in the worst case.  It is also not lost on me that Wisconsin has the cleanest voter roll of the “Blue Collar Big 3,” which includes Pennsylvania and Michigan.  Less than 60% of the state’s population is registered to vote, which is in stark contrast to Michigan, which has more people registered than are over the age of 18, and therefore eligible. Much of this decline is owed to the depopulation of Milwaukee and the associated decline of its voter roll, as well as Wisconsin not operating the built-in fraud mechanism known as Automatic Voter Registration.

This piece focuses on likely outcomes based on registration analysis using Iowa, and Trump’s own registration to results coefficient there over two races.  The state shares many overlapping demographics with Wisconsin, especially in the border region along the Mississippi River that was crucial for flipping both to Trump in 2016.  Wisconsin sits left of Iowa thanks to a larger minority population and more urban area, and I outlined those differences in detail in my June treatise.  I will issue a formal projection blending all analytical disciplines right before Election Day which will consider any updates or developments regarding early voting data.

---

Iowa Voter Registration by Party

I posted the status of Iowa voter registration by party on all my social media accounts this morning, showing the change from 2020 in all 99 counties:

How significant is this change?  Here is a readout since 2004 on how Iowa’s results line up with the voter registration index:

There has been a massive realignment in the voter registration index following the 2020 election that leaves me room for some “Kentucky windage.”The voter roll is reduced by more than 400,000 since then, both the Republican and Democrat parties have fewer registrants, and the roll is reduced by more than 200,000 not affiliated with either party.  While it is curious to me why it is always the Democrats most harmed by a voter roll purge, all 99 counties have shifted Republican, and the state itself is now R+10.4%, good for a lead of 166,858.  The state will issue final numbers soon and I will sharpen my pencil as needed.

---