Rounding Third: One Last Recap Before Finals

Topic: 2024 Election Forecast

We are in the final stretch of the 2024 election.  If you haven’t made a plan to vote, make sure you do that.  Voting early or waiting until the day of is your decision alone to make.  You should also encourage all like-minded individuals in your circle to make sure they vote, too.  It will be low propensity voters that determine this election, especially in the tightest states.

I will be spending this week preparing to make my final predictions, which of course come with a Barry Bonds-esque asterisk to serve as a disclaimer against any fraudulent practices tainting the precision of my calls.  Let me catch you up on where my calls stand for states not named North Carolina or falling into the group of seven I refer to as the decisive states.

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Safe – Likely 10% or More to Either Candidate

Harris 191, Trump 179

Some of these are looking like they may not hold up at the ten-point margins, with Texas potentially belonging in this grouping at Trump +10 or more, and several solid blue states potentially drifting into single digits, like Delaware or New Jersey.  I remain confident the winners are correct at any rate:

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Leaners – Likely Predictable, but Within 10% for Either Candidate

Trump 235, Harris 222

I have never considered North Carolina decisive, as it has always displayed the clear fundamentals of a Trump state, with its voter registration trend most notable.  Clearly, if its 16 electors were ripped off for Harris, it would be decisive for her, but to Trump, he needs to get more than Texas and North Carolina.  Today’s word on the street is that Harris is reallocating North Carolina funds to Virginia, a telltale sign that she is in deep doo-doo and knows it.  As I predicted on July 12, Trump is eyeballing Virginia, Minnesota, New Mexico, and New Hampshire (in the decisive category), and there is a good chance he pulls an upset in at least one.

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Decisive States

81 Electoral Votes up for Grabs (minus North Carolina)

I have included North Carolina so you can see the math, and present Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada, and New Hampshire.  I consider New Hampshire decisive for Trump, as it serves as a lifeline, if paired with Nevada, to substitute for ten electoral votes potentially lost elsewhere.  I believe the three likeliest Trump states of these, after North Carolina, are Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Wisconsin, which look like wins even in the pessimistic forecasts (note: I did not issue a long-form Voter Registration Index Forecast for North Carolina, but my estimate came out to Trump +6.3%).

Pessimistic Trend Forecasts:

Pennsylvania

Georgia

North Carolina

Michigan

Arizona

Wisconsin

Nevada

New Hampshire

Voter Registration Index Forecasts:

Pennsylvania

Georgia

North Carolina

Michigan

Arizona

Wisconsin

Nevada

New Hampshire

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Final Steps

I am planning to release a final prediction for each of the eight states above, making no changes to “safe” or “leaner” picks.  If any leaners change sides, it will be against Harris and for Trump, not the other way around.  In some cases, I will be averaging the pessimistic and voter registration analyses, such as in the case of Georgia coming in at Trump +2.6%, which is on the low end (where I aim to be) of what I expect to happen.

In other states, a little pencil sharpening will need to happen, especially where I have voter registration by party.  I should have final voter registration totals on the first of the month, and those will give me the most timely and accurate information to produce what I hope will be some of the most accurate predictions you will find this year.

Thank you for subscribing to this journal and supporting my work.

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Seth Keshel, MBA, is a former Army Captain of Military Intelligence and Afghanistan veteran. His analytical method of election forecasting and analytics is known worldwide, and he has been commended by President Donald J. Trump for his work in the field.