WEST VIRGINIA
Basic Election Facts
2024 Electoral Votes: 4
Population (2020 Census): 1,793,716 (-59,278 since 2010)
Likely Population at 2024 Election: 1,750,000
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Partisanship
Governor Party: Republican
State House Majority: Republican
State Senate Majority: Republican
U.S. House Delegation: 2 Republicans
U.S. Senate Delegation: 1 Republican, 1 Democrat
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Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)
White: 89.1%
Latino: 1.9%
Black: 4.9%
Other: 4.1%
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Presidential History since 1932
Times Republican: 9
Last: Donald Trump, 2020, +38.9%
Times Democrat: 14
Last: Bill Clinton, 1996, +14.8%
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Presidential Election Characteristics
· From 1932 through 1996, West Virginia was the political opposite of neighboring Virginia, backing all but three Democrat nominees thanks to its white-working class, heavily unionized voting population. Only Eisenhower, Nixon, and Reagan won the state in reelection campaigns in that timeframe for the GOP.
· Had George W. Bush not flipped West Virginia from the Democrats in 2000, he would have lost the presidential election regardless of Florida’s narrow outcome.
· West Virginia is one of just two states (Alaska is the other) with Automatic Voter Registration in place during the 2020 election that went to Donald Trump, out of 20 possible.
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2020 Review
Official: Donald Trump +38.9% (309,398 votes in margin)
Keshel Revised Likely: Donald Trump +49.2% (364,167 votes in margin)
West Virginia was one of five states that came in as more Republican by margin in 2008 than in 2004, with Barack Obama coming in nearly 23,000 votes behind John Kerry despite his nationwide romp over John McCain. Obama collapsed in the state in 2012, and Clinton was nearly 50,000 behind that performance once Trump supercharged the white working-class base in the state. In 2020, Trump added another 56,011 votes to his total in this state with a declining population (West Virginia has one fewer electoral college vote this decade than last) but lost over 3 points in margin of victory from 2016 because Joe Biden managed to gain 47,190 votes over Clinton, nearly equaling Obama’s 2012 total. This occurred despite the Democrats having lost more than 101,000 registrations from the 2016 election. A legitimate Trump margin appears to be approaching 50%, and the only way I can fathom such a gain for Biden is due to Automatic Voter Registration in the state. West Virginia’s nudge to the left gives cover for the blatant election fraud in critical western Pennsylvania, which has very similar voting demographics.
2024 Preview
Prediction: Donald Trump >+40% official, 55% clean
West Virginia, for the first time in history, has more registered Republicans than Democrats, and the edge will certainly be over 10% in favor of Republicans by the time of the election, a stunning shift from the D+26.2% mark seen in the 2008 election. West Virginia will be a blowout despite Automatic Voter Registration littering the state with bogus registrations, and if left to run clean, would be in Wyoming territory. The state will be called as soon as polls close for Trump, and with Democrat Joe Manchin retiring, so will the U.S. Senate seat for whomever wins the Republican Senate nomination. Trump should carry all 55 counties, as has been the case for GOP nominees since 2012, and push up against the 600,000 vote mark. Keep an eye on West Virginia, because an unprecedented thrashing will be a good sign for western Pennsylvania looking the same way.
If you would like to sponsor a precinct map for any of this state’s 55 counties, e-mail mapping@goefi.org.
Previous Installments
Author’s Note: Information is power. This report is free for all to view, and I believe the other Electoral College previews will be, as well. If you find this journal useful and informative, please subscribe as a paying member. My travels and mission this year will not be inexpensive, and your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!