Know Your 2024 Electoral College: Indiana (11 Electoral Votes)

Topic: Elections

INDIANA

Basic Election Facts

2024 Electoral Votes: 11

Population (2020 Census): 6,785,528 (+301,726 since 2010)

Likely Population at 2024 Election: 6,900,000

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Partisanship

Governor Party: Republican

State House Majority: Republican

State Senate Majority: Republican

U.S. House Delegation: 7 Republicans, 2 Democrats

U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Republicans

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Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)

White: 71.0%

Latino: 11.2%

Black: 9.3%

Other: 6.0%

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Presidential History since 1932

Times Republican: 19

Last: Donald Trump, 2020, +16.1%

Times Democrat: 4

Last: Barack Obama, 2008, +1.0%

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Presidential Election Characteristics

·      Indiana is the most Republican of the Industrial Midwestern states and has only backed four Democrat presidential candidates since 1932.  Obama’s win there in 2008 was likely his most unexpected upset given how heavily Republican Indiana has trended since.

·      Thanks to the populist-right trend in most of Indiana’s rural counties, Democrat strength is concentrated in core Indianapolis and in the greater Chicago area along Lake Michigan.

·      The state has traditional Republican strength in suburban areas, which is dwindling in counties like affluent Hamilton, and conservative rural counties that are now taking on the pro-Trump votes of disaffected working-class Democrats.  National bellwether Vigo County, in western Indiana, was won by Trump with ease in both previous campaigns.

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2020 Review

Official: Donald Trump +16.1% (487,100 votes in margin)

Keshel Revised Likely: Donald Trump +24.1% (683,237 votes in margin)

Trump’s 2020 win in Indiana resembles his victories in surrounding states Kentucky and Ohio - significantly large, but to the left of his 2016 margin despite all indicators, including incumbent vote gain, suggesting the region’s blue-collar states should have become more Republican as a percentage of margin, which would have solidified Pennsylvania and Michigan for Trump.  Biden won just four counties in the certified results, including Lake, home to run-down and dilapidated Gary, and Marion, which houses most of metro Indianapolis.  Those two counties, along with Trump-won Hamilton and Allen Counties, are the four worst in the state for 2020 manipulation, with Marion leading the way by sheer size alone.  Hamilton, which has backed every GOP nominee since 1916, was shaved down to just 6.8% in favor of Trump despite a modest gain from 2016, when he won the county with ease.  Perhaps most shocking, despite Trump’s gain in net new votes being the largest since 2004 (+172,230), Biden gained 209,290 votes over Hillary Clinton’s total against the political grain of the state.

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2024 Preview

Prediction: Donald Trump >+18% official, >25% clean

With so little Democrat strength outside of the Great Lakes and Indianapolis, and greater minority support for Trump on the horizon, Indiana should be a laugher that is called as soon as polls close.  Trump will probably approach 1.9 million votes naturally, and if enough former Democrats come his way, perhaps 2.0 million.  Indiana is worth watching because of its early poll closure time in the Eastern Standard Time Zone and if Trump is at or near 60%, it is a good sign he is on his way to a popular vote majority nationally. His performance in suburban Hamilton County will also serve as good indicator of suburban performance nationwide.

If you would like to sponsor a precinct map for any of this state’s 92 counties, e-mail mapping@goefi.org.

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Author’s Note: Information is power. This report is free for all to view, and I believe the other Electoral College previews will be, as well. If you find this journal useful and informative, please subscribe as a paying member. My travels and mission this year will not be inexpensive, and your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!