Know Your 2024 Electoral College: Tennessee (11 Electoral Votes)
Topic: Elections
TENNESSEE
Basic Election Facts
2024 Electoral Votes: 11
Population (2020 Census): 6,910,840 (+564,735 since 2010)
Likely Population at 2024 Election: 7,250,000
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Partisanship
Governor Party: Republican
State House Majority: Republican
State Senate Majority: Republican
U.S. House Delegation: 8 Republicans, 1 Democrat
U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Republicans
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Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)
White: 74.7%
Latino: 6.9%
Black: 17.0%
Other: 1.4%
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Presidential History since 1932
Times Republican: 14
Last: Donald Trump, 2020, +23.2%
Times Democrat: 9
Last: Bill Clinton, 1996, +2.4%
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Presidential Election Characteristics
· Al Gore, a previously popular Democrat U.S. Senator from Tennessee, lost his home state of Tennessee to George W. Bush in 2000, which cost him the Electoral College victory. He was the first presidential candidate to lose his state of residence since George McGovern in 1972.
· Tennessee backed all but two Democrat presidential nominees from 1876 through 1948 as part of the old “Solid South” and became competitive in the mid-20th century. The 2000 election was the last race there within ten points and it has since trended into a GOP stronghold in all facets of government.
· Democrat strength is quarantined to Shelby County, which contains metro Memphis, and the counties surrounding metro Nashville in central Tennessee. The rest of the state, particularly the mountainous east, has trended heavily Republican during the populist takeover of the party.
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2020 Review
Official: Donald Trump +23.2% (708,764 votes in margin)
Keshel Revised Likely: Donald Trump +35.8% (990,976 votes in margin)
Excepting Richard Nixon’s 1972 gain of 340,555 votes over his 1968 performance, which is artificially high thanks to George Wallace receiving 34% of the vote in 1968, Donald Trump’s gain of 329,550 votes over his 2016 performance (in which he moved Tennessee 5.6% further right) is a Republican Party presidential record; however, Trump was curiously met with a Biden increase of 273,016 net new votes, which moved Tennessee 2.8% left from 2016 despite the incumbent’s GOP record gain. This is highly suspicious, especially since Tennessee was one of just five states in the 2008 election to be less favorable to Barack Obama than to John Kerry in the 2004 race. Population growth has also been consistently measurable, and my analysis shows substantial manipulation in heavily Republican eastern Tennessee, the Nashville metro, and in Shelby County.
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2024 Preview
Prediction: Donald Trump >+25% official, >+36-40% clean
Trump will certainly clear 2.0 million votes in Tennessee, which is rapidly expanding with blue state refugees, and if he matches his gain from last election, will come close to 2.2 million. Biden should be under 1.0 million in a fair race, especially with much less black support than he had in 2020, but even with some padding, Tennessee is fool’s gold for Southern Democrats who remember the “good old days” when Bill Clinton won the state twice. Trump should organically approach Nixon’s 1972 margin of 38.0%, but even if he is sandbagged by manipulation, will still win Tennessee by a monstrous margin that should move right from 2020. Tennessee will be called as soon as polls close.
If you would like to sponsor a precinct map for any of this state’s 95 counties, e-mail mapping@goefi.org.
Previous Installments
Author’s Note: Information is power. This report is free for all to view, and I believe the other Electoral College previews will be, as well. If you find this journal useful and informative, please subscribe as a paying member. My travels and mission this year will not be inexpensive, and your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!
I'm happy to report that wife has enrolled in True the Vote's IV3 program, and she has been spending her evenings challenging registrations in our county.