Know Your 2024 Electoral College: Alabama (9 Electoral Votes)
Topic: Elections
ALABAMA
Basic Election Facts
2024 Electoral Votes: 9
Population (2020 Census): 5,024,279 (+244,543 since 2010)
Likely Population at 2024 Election: 5,200,000
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Partisanship
Governor Party: Republican
State House Majority: Republican
State Senate Majority: Republican
U.S. House Delegation: 6 Republicans, 1 Democrat
U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Republicans
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Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)
White: 63.1%
Latino: 5.3%
Black: 25.6%
Other: 6.0%
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Presidential History since 1932
Times Republican: 13
Last: Donald Trump, 2020, +25.5%
Times Democrat: 7
Last: Jimmy Carter, 1976, +13.1%
Times Other: 3
Last: George Wallace, 1968, +47.1%
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Presidential Election Characteristics
· Alabama was once part of the “Solid South” union of Democrat-loyal states but broke from that in the 1960s. Alabama even sent its electoral votes to three “other party” candidates, including Governor George Wallace in a 1968 blowout.
· Democrat strength is restricted to the center of Alabama in the “black belt” stretching across the southeast. This includes Jefferson County, home to metro Birmingham, but lacks major population density to compete with the rest of overwhelmingly Republican white-dominant Alabama.
· As with most deep south states, Alabama’s white vote is overwhelmingly Republican, and its black vote overwhelmingly Democrat. Since Barack Obama’s 2008 run, Alabama’s black vote is largely disengaged.
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2020 Review
Official: Donald Trump +25.5% (591,546 votes in margin)
Keshel Revised Likely: Donald Trump +31.2% (692,370 votes in margin)
Trump won Alabama in a 25.5% romp, but despite his gain in net votes being twice as large as his own 2016 gain, when he won the state by 5.5% more than Romney did, Trump lost 2.2% in margin from himself in a state growing at the same rate as usual, with black voters less Democrat-loyal than they were to Obama. Trump’s gain of 122,915 net new votes was nearly equaled exactly by Joe Biden’s gain of 120,077 votes, despite back-to-back Obama and Clinton vote losses considering new GOP gains. Jefferson County appears to contain the most bogus Biden votes, and smaller amounts can be found along Alabama’s coast and in Madison County up north, with a margin inside 10 points for the first time since 1996 despite another solid Trump gain. Alabama’s nudge left gives cover for a national nudge left, especially next door in Georgia.
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2024 Preview
Prediction: Donald Trump >+28% official, >+34 clean
Trump will likely park between 1.5 and 1.6 million votes in Alabama and may even flip a few of the small “black belt” counties that have been teetering on the Republican edge for the past two races. If this upcoming race is clean, Trump will take the state in the mid-thirties as a percentage, but even so, will likely push it further right than it was in 2016 or 2020. Alabama is a slam-dunk for 9 Trumpian electoral votes as soon as polls close.
If you would like to sponsor a precinct map for any of this state’s 67 counties, e-mail mapping@goefi.org.
Previous Installments
Author’s Note: Information is power. This report is free for all to view, and I believe the other Electoral College previews will be, as well. If you find this journal useful and informative, please subscribe as a paying member. My travels and mission this year will not be inexpensive, and your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!
Would be interested in your latest take on VA (particularly since we are socializing our report on the 2020 fraud in VA)