Know Your 2024 Electoral College: Mississippi (6 Electoral Votes)
Topic: Elections
MISSISSIPPI
Basic Election Facts
2024 Electoral Votes: 6
Population (2020 Census): 2,961,279 (-6,018 since 2010)
Likely Population at 2024 Election: 2,925,000
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Partisanship
Governor Party: Republican
State House Majority: Republican
State Senate Majority: Republican
U.S. House Delegation: 3 Republicans, 1 Democrat
U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Republicans
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Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)
White: 55.4%
Latino: 3.6%
Black: 36.4%
Other: 4.6%
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Presidential History since 1932
Times Republican: 13
Last: Donald Trump, 2020, +16.5%
Times Democrat: 7
Last: Jimmy Carter, 1976, +1.9%
Times Other: 3
Last: George Wallace, 1968, +40.4%
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Presidential Election Characteristics
· Since 1872, Mississippi has voted for the same candidate in every election as Alabama, including for “other party” candidates.
· Democrat strength can be found in the Jackson metro area, particularly in Hinds County, and in the sparsely populated Mississippi Delta along the Mississippi River. Republican margins produced in northeastern Mississippi and in the Gulf Coast region are insurmountable in statewide elections.
· As with most deep south states, Mississippi’s white vote is overwhelmingly Republican, and its black vote overwhelmingly Democrat. Since Barack Obama’s runs, Mississippi’s black vote is largely disengaged.
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2020 Review
Official: Donald Trump +16.5% (217,366 votes in margin)
Keshel Revised Likely: Donald Trump +19.5% (250,318 votes in margin)
Like he did in Alabama, Trump carried Mississippi by a mile, but despite his gain in net votes being the highest in the state since George W. Bush’s in 2004, Trump lost 1.3% in margin from himself in a state declining in population, with black voters less Democrat-loyal than they were to Obama. Trump’s gain of 56,042 net new votes was nearly equaled exactly by Joe Biden’s gain of 54,267 votes over Clinton, despite Clinton’s heavy plunge in 2016 from Barack Obama’s vote totals. While Mississippi is one of the cleaner states to be found in the 2020 election, it appears Harrison and DeSoto Counties have the most questionable results and, as such, the highest likely estimates for excess Biden ballots.
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2024 Preview
Prediction: Donald Trump >+20% official, >+23 clean
Trump will clear 800,000 votes in Mississippi and benefit from a less loyal black Democrat vote, plus all those Ole Miss frat boys who held the line in the recent campus riots. Mississippi will continue its long partnership with Alabama by backing the same candidate, with Trump called the winner of its six electoral votes as soon as polls close.
If you would like to sponsor a precinct map for any of this state’s 82 counties, e-mail mapping@goefi.org.
Previous Installments
Author’s Note: Information is power. This report is free for all to view, and I believe the other Electoral College previews will be, as well. If you find this journal useful and informative, please subscribe as a paying member. My travels and mission this year will not be inexpensive, and your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!