Know Your 2024 Electoral College: Missouri (10 Electoral Votes)
Topic: Elections
MISSOURI
Basic Election Facts
2024 Electoral Votes: 10
Population (2020 Census): 6,154,913 (+165,986 since 2010)
Likely Population at 2024 Election: 6,250,000
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Partisanship
Governor Party: Republican
State House Majority: Republican
State Senate Majority: Republican
U.S. House Delegation: 6 Republicans, 2 Democrats
U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Republicans
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Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)
White: 77.0%
Latino: 4.9%
Black: 11.4%
Other: 6.7%
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Presidential History since 1932
Times Republican: 12
Last: Donald Trump, 2020, +15.4%
Times Democrat: 11
Last: Bill Clinton, 1996, +6.3%
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Presidential Election Characteristics
·     From 1968 through 2004, Missouri voted with the winner of the presidency on all 12 occasions, making it a strong bellwether for the second half of the 20th century. Many forget that John McCain carried the state by just 3,903 votes (0.14%) against Barack Obama in 2008, narrowly snapping its bellwether streak at 12.
·     Missouri moved on from the tight 2008 election to back Mitt Romney by 9.4% in Obama’s reelection campaign, then favored Donald Trump in 2016 by 18.5%, and should have afforded a slightly higher margin in 2020. Missouri quickly moved in favor of America First policy like every neighboring state except for Illinois (though its southern regions reflected the same trend).
·     Trump carried the same 110 counties (out of 114) in both of his races in Missouri. Democrat strength is isolated to Boone County (Columbia, home of the University of Missouri), and Jackson County (metro Kansas City) in modest margins, and in large margins to the St. Louis area (both the county and the independent city). The Ozark region of the state (the southwest) is among the reddest areas in the nation.
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2020 Review
Official: Donald Trump +15.4% (465,722 votes in margin)
Keshel Revised Likely: Donald Trump +19.8% (577,316 votes in margin)
Trump carried Missouri by 3.1% less than he did in 2016, despite a gain in votes larger than his own gain in 2016. Despite Missouri’s Democrat die-off, Biden came in 181,946 votes over Clinton, whereas Trump gained just 124,225 over his 2016 performance. That 2016 performance featured a gain of 112,071 for Trump, which corresponded with a Clinton nosedive of 152,728 from Obama, who was down 178,115 from his photo finish in 2008. The 2020 election fraud was rampant across the country, even in safe states like Missouri. My numbers suggest St. Louis and Jackson Counties are the ring leaders for excess votes in the last presidential race.
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2024 Preview
Prediction: Donald Trump >+18% official, >+21 clean
With very little blue turf to grow from, Democrats are likely to be slaughtered at a near-historic level in 2024. Party registration trends in surrounding states suggest an identical move in the Show Me State, which does not register voters by party, should be underway. Trump will likely perform substantially better in St. Louis City and Jackson County by siphoning off much of the black Democrat vote, and the Ozarks will be incalculably red and move to margins never thought possible. It was Ronald Reagan by 20.04% in 1984 against Mondale, with 60.02% of the vote – I think that is the Trump ballpark in 2024, if not Nixon’s 1972 mark of 24.6% in margin.
Missouri will be called for Trump almost immediately after poll closure.
If you would like to sponsor a precinct map for any of this state’s 114 counties, e-mail mapping@goefi.org.
Previous Installments
Author’s Note: Information is power. This report is free for all to view, and I believe the other Electoral College previews will be, as well. If you find this journal useful and informative, please subscribe as a paying member. My travels and mission this year will not be inexpensive, and your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!