Know Your 2024 Electoral College: Illinois (19 Electoral Votes)
Topic: Elections
ILLINOIS
Basic Election Facts
2024 Electoral Votes: 19
Population (2020 Census): 12,812,508 (-18,124 since 2010)
Likely Population at 2024 Election: 12,500,000
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Partisanship
Governor Party: Democrat
State House Majority: Democrat
State Senate Majority: Democrat
U.S. House Delegation: 3 Republicans, 14 Democrats
U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Democrats
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Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)
White: 58.3%
Latino: 18.2%
Black: 13.9%
Other: 9.6%
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Presidential History since 1932
Times Republican: 8
Last: George H.W. Bush, 1988, +2.1%
Times Democrat: 15
Last: Joe Biden, 2020, +17.0%
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Presidential Election Characteristics
·     The Illinois statewide vote is dominated by six large counties making up the Chicago metro – Cook (core Chicago), Will, Lake, DuPage, McHenry, and Kane. Together, they contribute nearly two-thirds of the statewide vote (64.8% in 2020).
·     Even in 2020’s corrupt election, Trump improved his performance in middle and southern Illinois by continuing to appeal to a populist working-class coalition; however, the vast majority of votes is in the north.
·     Illinois’ Republican streak from 1968 through 1988 featured a much more Republican suburban Chicago, and more competitive races put up by GOP candidates within Cook County. That county’s corruption, combined with its sheer vote share, has made Illinois unwinnable for populist Republicans, even deducting 2020 bloating.
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2020 Review
Official: Joe Biden +17.0% (1,025,024 votes in margin)
Keshel Revised Likely: Joe Biden +12.4% (707,911 votes in margin)
Outside of the area across from St. Louis (Madison and St. Clair Counties), central and southern Illinois fared far better than comparable areas in Wisconsin or Minnesota did in terms of election quality. Northeastern Illinois, especially the six counties outlined earlier in this report, is eaten up with election manipulation and Chicago cartel corruption. My estimate for Cook, Lake, Will, Kane, McHenry, and DuPage Counties together comes out to 227,950 likely fraudulent ballots, and that estimate is lenient on Cook and comes with the generous and certainly naïve assessment that all previous election totals can be relied upon for legitimate analysis (Bob Dole’s farewell letter runs counter to this notion). Trump gained over 300,000 net new votes statewide from 2016, and should have closed the margin substantially, down to at least 12.4% rather than the certified 17.0%. Illinois’ artificially large margin gives cover for election results in southern Wisconsin.
2024 Preview
Prediction: Joe Biden >+12% official, >+7 clean
We have been here before, with upstart campaigns and movements saying they are going to invert a state’s voting pattern. There is a lot of energy in Chicago from the black community pushing back against problems related to illegal immigration, but the simple fact is that Cook County casts more than three-eighths of the statewide vote alone, with more than two million ballots at the ready, with more Democrat margin contained in that one county than can be supplied from all possible Republican margins combined. For Trump to win Illinois, he would need to crack 40% in Cook County, which will benefit from the state’s Automatic Voter Registration and mail-in voting policies that were not present when Republicans were competitive in Illinois presidential elections. Even if that were to happen, he would then need to flip Lake, Will, Kane, and DuPage Counties, which are full of affluent white postgrad voters (one of Trump’s few problem groups) and run up the score in McHenry County, just to get himself in position to pray the pro-Trump parts of the state come out in droves. Even then, the best outcome would be like the 2014 gubernatorial race. Check out that map for more insight.
In the end, I think there is a good chance Trump gets the certified margin of defeat down around 12 points, which would equate to a single-digits race without modern election trickery and deceit. Chicago is too much, and too lawless, and the rest of the state isn’t sufficiently populated or conservative. Illinois will go to Biden, but not in emphatic, Obama-like fashion.
If you would like to sponsor a precinct map for any of this state’s 102 counties, e-mail mapping@goefi.org.
Previous Installments
Author’s Note: Information is power. This report is free for all to view, and I believe the other Electoral College previews will be, as well. If you find this journal useful and informative, please subscribe as a paying member. My travels and mission this year will not be inexpensive, and your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!
Good work Seth. I live in Illinois, in a Red county. The majority of the state is red, rural, and conservative. Not only has Cook county, mainly, distorted and controlled the state's representation in the state house, and Congress, but the corruption of the Madigan regime for decades never allowed for fair votes in Springfield on issues that affected ALL of Illinois residents.
Many of us believe that the last two Governor elections were stolen by the criminal Pritzker. It's maddening and disgusting. The marxist element has infiltrated and overthrown our state. There is NO hope for the majority of good people in Illinois except to secede. There is a very real and viable New Illinois ready to become a 51st state, similar to the one in CA.
This would separate us from the Dem corruption in Chicago, and allow real representation in Congress.
By the way, due to financial issues, I had to stop my paid subscription, and could not comment on your recent articles. But I just received an unexpected blessing in the mail, and have resumed my paid sub to you, so I am now able to communicate. This is good because I do not have TwiX or Truth Social, and get most of my news and info here on Substack.
Telling the Truth again! This is just the best Mr Seth. Thanks is never enough.