ARKANSAS
Basic Election Facts
2024 Electoral Votes: 6
Population (2020 Census): 3,011,524 (+95,606 since 2010)
Likely Population at 2024 Election: 3,100,000
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Partisanship
Governor Party: Republican
State House Majority: Republican
State Senate Majority: Republican
U.S. House Delegation: 4 Republicans
U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Republicans
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Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)
White: 68.5%
Latino: 8.5%
Black: 16.2%
Other: 6.8%
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Presidential History since 1932
Times Republican: 10
Last: Donald Trump, 2020, +27.6%
Times Democrat: 12
Last: Bill Clinton, 1996, +16.9%
Times Other: 1
Last: George Wallace, 1968, +8.1%
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Presidential Election Characteristics
· From 1876 through 1968, Arkansas had a “Solid South” voting pattern in presidential elections, backing all Democrat nominees except for George Wallace (independent Alabama governor) in that final year. The state went to Republican Richard Nixon in a national landslide in 1972 but didn’t become truly competitive until the 1980s.
· Bill Clinton, the state’s former governor, carried his home state in both of his campaigns, by 17.7% in 1992 and 16.9% in 1996. Had George W. Bush not flipped the state in 2000, he would have lost the race despite his narrow win in Florida.
· Trump carried the same 67 counties (out of 75) in both of his races in Arkansas and was within 7.3% of flipping four of those lost in 2020. Democrat strength in the state is almost non-existent, with only one county yielding Biden a margin larger than 5,460 (Pulaski – home of metro Little Rock). The northwestern portion of the state is traditionally Republican and receives most of the state’s growth.
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2020 Review
Official: Donald Trump +27.6% (336,715 votes in margin)
Keshel Revised Likely: Donald Trump +32.6% (373,842 votes in margin)
Arkansas is one of just a handful of states that gave Trump a larger 2020 margin of victory (or decreased margin of defeat) as a percentage than it did in 2016. Trump’s gain in a rapidly reddening state with low population growth was much steeper than his own gain in 2016, when he increased his margin of victory over Mitt Romney by 3.2% over the state’s former First Lady, but the margin of victory inched to the right because Biden’s gain of 43,438 votes snapped a streak of three consecutive elections in which the Democrats lost net votes from the previous election. Not even Barack Obama, in his 2008 national landslide, could add votes over the previous year’s nominee, but the notion that it was a non-campaigning political retread who not only reversed this decline, but gained more new votes than Trump did in 2016, is hard to comprehend. Benton County, in the far northwest, and Pulaski County, home to metro Little Rock, give the greatest cause for concern for election manipulation. Conrad Reynolds, Will Huff, and John Bailey are patriots who have corroborated the vulnerabilities in the state’s election infrastructure.
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2024 Preview
Prediction: Donald Trump >+30% official, >+35% clean
Trump is near apogee in the reddest areas of the state but continues to make headway in the Democrat holdout counties that were strongest for Clinton in the 1990s. I expect many of the Democrat counties along the Mississippi River to flip for Trump and wind up in the GOP column for the first time since 1972, and if Trump makes a dent in Pulaski County and runs the margins back up in the Ozarks, you could be looking at something close to that year’s final mark (38.1%), but probably a little short. This is one of Trump’s strongest states, and a certain six electoral votes.
Arkansas, like several neighboring states, will be called for Trump almost immediately after poll closure.
If you would like to sponsor a precinct map for any of this state’s 75 counties, e-mail mapping@goefi.org.
Previous Installments
Author’s Note: Information is power. This report is free for all to view, and I believe the other Electoral College previews will be, as well. If you find this journal useful and informative, please subscribe as a paying member. My travels and mission this year will not be inexpensive, and your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!
Thank you for you hard work in assembly the data in a state by state review. Great Job. It’s now a go reference for me to look up the facts.. and commentary. Thank You