Know Your 2024 Electoral College: Louisiana (8 Electoral Votes)
Topic: Elections
LOUISIANA
Basic Election Facts
2024 Electoral Votes: 8
Population (2020 Census): 4,657,757 (+124,385 since 2010)
Likely Population at 2024 Election: 4,700,000
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Partisanship
Governor Party: Republican
State House Majority: Republican
State Senate Majority: Republican
U.S. House Delegation: 5 Republicans, 1 Democrat
U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Republicans
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Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)
White: 55.8%
Latino: 6.9%
Black: 32.6%
Other: 4.7%
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Presidential History since 1932
Times Republican: 12
Last: Donald Trump, 2020, +18.6%
Times Democrat: 9
Last: Bill Clinton, 1996, +12.1%
Times Other: 2
Last: George Wallace, 1968, +20.1%
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Presidential Election Characteristics
· Louisiana was one of the first Deep South states to break from its “Solid South” voting pattern; it had backed every Democrat presidential nominee from 1880 through 1952 before going for Eisenhower in 1956, then becoming competitive, then reliably Republican in 1980 (with two exceptions since).
· Bill Clinton carried Louisiana in both of his presidential runs, making him the last Democrat to do so, even though “blue dog” Democrats continued to carry the state in Senate or gubernatorial runs into the 21st century. Louisiana’s legacy Democrat registration is fading, down to less than a 4% lead, whereas it was a nearly 8% lead in 2020 when President Trump won with ease.
· Trump carried the same 54 parishes (Louisiana does not call their political subdivisions “counties”), out of 64, in both of his races in Louisiana and was within 6.8% of flipping four of those lost in 2020. Orleans Parish, which contains metro New Orleans, is the only source of major Democrat margin (+121,190 in 2020), and it has dwindled in voting power since Hurricane Katrina resulted in major depopulation that is only now beginning to recover. Republicans have major strength throughout southern Louisiana stretching from Lake Charles, through Lafayette, all the way to the Mississippi line and St. Tammany Parish.
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2020 Review
Official: Donald Trump +18.6% (399,742 votes in margin)
Keshel Revised Likely: Donald Trump +21.0% (441,345 votes in margin)
Louisiana fits the same mold as Mississippi and Alabama, in that Trump’s 2020 net vote gain was much larger than his gain in 2016, yet he lost margin of victory thanks to an unforeseen Biden gain that goes against all trends and predictors in the state. Trump carried the state by 1% less than he did in 2016, with Biden managing to gain 75,880 votes over Clinton’s performance four years before, nearly perfectly equal to Trump’s gain of 77,138, which should have pushed the margin beyond 20%. Curiously, Orleans (New Orleans) shows no indication at the parish level of containing excess votes, but heavily Republican parishes like Lafayette and St. Tammany Parish show major Democrat gains that defy the voter registration indicator and the incumbent gains. Despite this, Louisiana is one of the cleaner states in an otherwise sad national disaster of an election.
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2024 Preview
Prediction: Donald Trump >+20% official, >+24% clean
Louisiana’s voter registration index will be nearly even by the time of the election, shedding the last of the legacy Democrat registrations like Kentucky and West Virginia have in recent years. Trump will likely flip several of the holdout Democrat parishes along the Mississippi River for bragging rights, but his margin should progress by making strides with the black male vote, weakening the blow from Orleans Parish and neutralizing East Baton Rouge Parish, while running up the score in the interior of the state. Trump may threaten for 1.4 million votes in the Pelican State.
Louisiana will be an election-night afterthought called amid several other landslide states without scrutiny.
If you would like to sponsor a precinct map for any of this state’s 64 parishes, e-mail mapping@goefi.org.
Previous Installments
Author’s Note: Information is power. This report is free for all to view, and I believe the other Electoral College previews will be, as well. If you find this journal useful and informative, please subscribe as a paying member. My travels and mission this year will not be inexpensive, and your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!
Thanks so much, Capt. As a resident of Lafayette Parish, I can tell you it is as red as red can get. Very interesting that you think there was some shenanigan's in 20'. But, not surprising. We are certainly paying attention here now.
What are the chances that Thompson will get voted out?