Know Your 2024 Electoral College: Nebraska (4 of 5 Electoral Votes)
Topic: Elections
NEBRASKA
Basic Election Facts
2024 Electoral Votes: 5 (split between three congressional districts)
Population (2020 Census): 1,961,504 (+135,163 since 2010)
Likely Population at 2024 Election: 2,000,000
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Partisanship
Governor Party: Republican
Legislative Majority: Republican
U.S. House Delegation: 3 Republicans
U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Republicans
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Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)
White: 78.3%
Latino: 10.2%
Black: 4.9%
Other: 6.6%
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Presidential History since 1932
Times Republican: 20
Last: Donald Trump, 2020, +19.2%
Times Democrat: 3
Last: Lyndon Johnson, 1964, +5.2%
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Presidential Election Characteristics
·     Nebraska, along with Maine, is one of just two states that splits its electoral votes between congressional districts, with the statewide winner taking two electoral votes and the remainder being distributed one per district.
·     Nebraska is joined by several other states in the Great Plains and Rocky Mountains regions (and Alaska) that last voted for a Democrat presidential nominee in 1964. Kansas and Nebraska have backed the same presidential nominee in every election since 1912.
·     Trump carried the same 91 counties in both 2016 and 2020, except election manipulation in Douglas and Sarpy Counties cost him the single electoral vote of the 2nd Congressional District, which is owned and operated by the Republican establishment that continues to unleash turncoat Don Bacon on the U.S. House.
·     Democrats have practically no political strength outside of metro Omaha and in Lincoln (Lancaster County), which is the state capital and home of the University of Nebraska. Saunders County, a Republican stronghold, has been added to new boundaries of the 2nd Congressional District, but it may not be enough to pull back the lost electoral vote short of legislation to make the state winner-take-all.
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2020 Review
Official: Donald Trump +19.2% (182,263 votes in margin)
Keshel Revised Likely: Donald Trump +25.9% (233,523 votes in margin)
Nebraska has the same political profile as Kansas, but slightly more right-leaning. It has a more moderate electorate in the east, near Omaha and Lincoln, and a rapidly reddening countryside moving westward. The 2020 manipulation is similar in both, with Douglas and Sarpy Counties in the Omaha region piling on enough fake Biden votes to provide him a comfortable win of the NE-2 electoral vote, not won by a Democrat since Obama pulled it off in 2008. Lancaster County did some heavy lifting, too, enough to cool off the largest statewide Republican vote gain since 2004, trim Trump’s margin by 5.9%, and take a 211,467-vote margin of victory in 2016 and plunge it under 200,000 four years later, despite the gain and the shift in party registration toward Republicans in Trump’s term.
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2024 Preview
Prediction: Donald Trump >+20% official, >+27% clean
NE-1: Donald Trump >18% official
NE-3: Donald Trump >55% official
Nebraska has zoomed from R+18.6% in 2020 to R+22.3% as of the most recent update, including slight rightward moves in all the counties making up NE-2, which will be assessed separately in a later post. Trump may approach 650,000 votes statewide, but if strides aren’t made in cleaning up NE-2, it will only lend itself to bigger blowouts for the single electoral votes of NE-1, and NE-3, and the inevitable statewide victory for two more votes.
Trump should extend his margin in Nebraska back over 20% even in manipulated results, and will absolutely net 4 of 5 electoral votes with ease, to be called as soon as polls close.
If you would like to sponsor a precinct map for any of this state’s 93 counties, e-mail mapping@goefi.org.
Previous Installments
Author’s Note: Information is power. This report is free for all to view, and I believe the other Electoral College previews will be, as well. If you find this journal useful and informative, please subscribe as a paying member. My travels and mission this year will not be inexpensive, and your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!
Seth, I’ve really enjoyed reading this series. Thank you for your hard work. Do you have the actual and official voting percentages for Nebraska’s 1st and third districts for 2020? Thanks