Know Your 2024 Electoral College: South Dakota (3 Electoral Votes)
Topic: Elections
SOUTH DAKOTA
Basic Election Facts
2024 Electoral Votes: 3
Population (2020 Census): 886,667 (+72,487 since 2010)
Likely Population at 2024 Election: 930,000
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Partisanship
Governor Party: Republican
State House Majority: Republican
State House Majority: Republican
U.S. House Delegation: 1 Republican
U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Republicans
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Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)
White: 80.7%
Latino: 4.9%
Black: 2.0%
Other: 12.4%
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Presidential History since 1932
Times Republican: 20
Last: Donald Trump, 2020, +26.2%
Times Democrat: 3
Last: Lyndon Johnson, 1964, +11.2%
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Presidential Election Characteristics
· South Dakota has voted exactly like its neighbor and cousin, North Dakota, in presidential elections since 1920, and the two have been aligned with Kansas and Nebraska in that period as well (Kansas and Nebraska have voted for the same candidate since 1912).
· South Dakota is joined by several other states in the Great Plains and Rocky Mountains regions (and Alaska) that last voted for a Democrat presidential nominee in 1964.
· Two urban counties, Minnehaha and Pennington, contained more than 35% of all ballots cast in the 2020 presidential race. The former contains the state’s largest city, Sioux Falls, and the latter contains most of the Rapid City metro area and contains many residents assigned to Ellsworth Air Force Base, split between two counties. Transient populations, comprised of many who live in RVs, are scattered throughout the state, and many claim residency in South Dakota for tax purposes only.
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2020 Review
Official: Donald Trump +26.2% (110,572 votes in margin)
Keshel Revised Likely: Donald Trump +35.0% (138,300 votes in margin)
There is no greater indicator that South Dakota’s 2020 race was highly manipulated than the corresponding outcome in North Dakota, which showed very little increase in net new votes; meanwhile, despite Minnehaha County becoming 4 points more Republican and having the third largest net new Republican vote increase in the history of the county, Joe Biden gained a party record 9,872 votes over Hillary Clinton’s 2016 total there, which was down from Obama’s 2012 total, which was even down from the 2008 high water mark by which Obama narrowly flipped the state’s largest county. That performance cut Trump’s margin by 5.2% in the county. Similar manipulation can be observed in Pennington County, and other smaller counties have signs of minor manipulation tying to the corrupted voter roll that has been exposed by South Dakota Canvassing Group, one of the nation’s foremost election integrity organizations. In particular, election manipulation is taking place through registrations linked to RV parks, and likely through ballot harvesting on reservations throughout the state. Trump’s 2020 net new vote increase, combined with registration indicators and political trend, suggest he should have been more in line with Dwight Eisenhower’s 1952 margin (38.5%), but instead, he won the state by almost an identical vote count, and by 3.6% less in margin, as 2016.
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2024 Preview
Prediction: Donald Trump >+28% official, >+38% clean
Good things are underway in South Dakota thanks to the efforts of Jessica Pollema and the South Dakota Canvassing Group and auditor Leah Anderson of Minnehaha County, regardless of what sitting Secretary of State and turncoat Monae Johnson, who rode the efforts of patriots in 2022 to take that office, thinks about the state suddenly having “secure” elections. All indicators present suggest South Dakota should produce 300,000 or more Trump votes, and a Trump margin approaching 40 points in an election free of election fraud. For starters, South Dakota was R+20.6% (20.6% more Republicans than Democrats) at the time of the 2020 election, with Republicans holding a lead of 118,959 registrations. That number is now R+26.7%, and the gap is 161,168 registrations. Minnehaha County is nearly R+16%, with fewer Democrats registered than in 2020, which means practically everyone moving to the state is a Trump-supporting patriot, and that Democrat growth there, regardless of population increase, should be minimal at best (not at record levels).
South Dakota will push 30% for Trump in certified results even if the cheat persists, and if under control along with a big shift in the Native American vote, we may see numbers in the high thirties. Score three electoral votes for Trump as soon as polls close.
If you would like to sponsor a precinct map for any of this state’s 66 counties, e-mail mapping@goefi.org.
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Author’s Note: Information is power. This report is free for all to view, and I believe the other Electoral College previews will be, as well. If you find this journal useful and informative, please subscribe as a paying member. My travels and mission this year will not be inexpensive, and your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!