Know Your 2024 Electoral College: Utah (6 Electoral Votes)
Topic: Elections
UTAH
Basic Election Facts
2024 Electoral Votes: 6
Population (2020 Census): 3,271,616 (+507,731 since 2010)
Likely Population at 2024 Election: 3,500,000
-
Partisanship
Governor Party: Republican
State House Majority: Republican
State House Majority: Republican
U.S. House Delegation: 4 Republicans
U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Republicans
-
Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)
White: 73.5%
Latino: 15.1%
Black: 1.1%
Other: 10.3%
-
Presidential History since 1932
Times Republican: 17
Last: Donald Trump, 2020, +20.5%
Times Democrat: 6
Last: Lyndon Johnson, 1964, +9.7%
-
Presidential Election Characteristics
· Utah falls into a grouping of states in the Rocky Mountains and Great Plains (plus Alaska) regions that last backed a Democrat presidential nominee in 1964. Utah’s strong Republican disposition is made possible by its 60% Mormon population, which is gradually declining as the state is populated by out-of-state transplants and new generations of non-whites.
· The Beehive State is beginning a post-GOP establishment shift of sorts, in which it no longer is the most Republican state as it was in 2004 (Bush +45.5%) and 2012 (Romney +47.9%). Utah was carried by Trump by a drastically decreased margin, holding just 45.5% of the vote (18.1% margin), in 2016 thanks to the CIA’s chosen candidate, a Utah native and Mormon named Evan McMullin, who pulled 21.5% of the vote as an independent candidate in an unsuccessful and brazen effort to flip the state to Hillary Clinton. Trump then carried 20 of 23 counties in 2020’s laughable results, including 18 with more than 60% of the vote.
· Utah is the only one of eight states that rely on universal mail-in balloting that classifies as a Republican state, although the convictions of said Republican leadership are held in severe contempt by local America First proponents. The state has the weakest Republican governor in America, Spencer Cox, currently at the helm, and is counting down the hours until Mitt Romney finally leaves public life behind.
-
2020 Review
Official: Donald Trump +20.5% (304,858 votes in margin)
Keshel Revised Likely: Donald Trump +38.6% (499,220 votes in margin)
With no McMullin type on the ballot in Utah, Trump and Biden combined for 95.8% of the vote, although Utah joins Montana and Idaho as another highly suspect 2020 election outcome along the corridor of GOP strongholds in the Rocky Mountain region. This was enabled by use of reckless mail-in balloting and other shortcuts, such as Utah County’s insane attempt at online voting. In that county, one of the most Republican urban counties in modern electoral history, Joe Biden eclipsed the all-time Democrat record 2.6 times over, with Trump having a full Republican vote share after the 2016 split but losing 38.2% off Mitt Romney’s 2012 margin of victory in that county. Trump consolidated most of his McMullin defections from 2016, gaining 349,909 votes over his previous performance, and even though nearly all third-party votes in 2016 should have been Trump’s based on a county-by-county analysis, Biden managed to gain 249,606 of his own net new votes, piling them on exceptionally thick not only in Utah County, but also in Salt Lake, Davis, and Washington Counties. My reconstruction of the 2020 race in Utah, given Trump consolidation of the GOP base, suggests a 38.6% margin should have been certified, which (excluding 2016) is still shy of the GOP margin in every presidential contest since 2000, except 2008, for any lurkers reading this analysis who want to call me crazy.
-
2024 Preview
Prediction: Donald Trump >+25% official, >+40% clean
Utah’s Republican establishment is doing all it can to hang on to power, with Governor Cox facing the challenge of a lifetime, and Mitt Romney’s safe Republican seat up for grabs. This won’t stop Trump from carrying Utah with relative ease, but trends and margins matter for the long run, and Utah’s mail-in balloting system leaves open holes for corrupting results throughout the state, especially in weakening or flipping county leadership positions that are decided by smaller margins.
For 2024, things are going well for Trump. A recent poll suggesting a 32-point Trump lead also reports Mormon voters now have a net-favorable view of Trump for the first time, a massive reversal of the negative sentiment they held for him in 2016 when being led around by the nose by the political bureaucracy and rotten GOP establishment that held nothing back in trying to put Clinton in office. Reading between the lines, I consider that massive news for Arizona, which has the fourth-highest population of Mormons in America at over 400,000, and Nevada, which has just under 200,000, along the lines of Trump holding the support of the milquetoast moderate faction of the GOP (no offense to you Mormons reading this who have supported Trump for eight years). Furthermore, Utah is now R+39.3%, when it was R+36.5% in 2020, for a total Republican lead of 670,942 net registrations, or 55,126 more than four years ago. Common sense and basic mathematical skill will tell you Democrats have no choice but to register as Republicans, but this shift aligns with a national rightward swing and spells doom for Democrat progress in 2024, even if the loose ends persist. Trump should carry Utah in the mid-twenties, at minimum, even in a slopfest of a mail-in election for six more electoral votes, and will likely carry at least 20 counties.
If you would like to sponsor a precinct map for any of this state’s 23 counties, e-mail mapping@goefi.org.
Previous Installments
Author’s Note: Information is power. This report is free for all to view, and I believe the other Electoral College previews will be, as well. If you find this journal useful and informative, please subscribe as a paying member. My travels and mission this year will not be inexpensive, and your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!
“The state has the weakest Republican governor in America, Spencer Cox, currently at the helm, and is counting down the hours until Mitt Romney finally leaves public life behind.”
I want to copy and paste this for my “normie” friends. My husband doesn’t understand why I get so angry about the governor - since when do I care about politics, anyways? Because he’s weak and wishy washy and about a dozen other adjectives!
I’m learning so much through your work. Thank you!
You are greatly appreciated Seth. Another excellent layout.