Know Your 2024 Electoral College: Washington (12 Electoral Votes)
Topic: Elections
WASHINGTON
Basic Election Facts
2024 Electoral Votes: 12
Population (2020 Census): 7,705,281 (+980,741 since 2010)
Likely Population at 2024 Election: 8,000,000
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Partisanship
Governor Party: Democrat
State House Majority: Democrat
State House Majority: Democrat
U.S. House Delegation: 8 Democrats, 2 Republicans
U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Democrats
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Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)
White: 66.6%
Latino: 12.1%
Black: 4.0%
Other: 17.3%
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Presidential History since 1932
Times Republican: 7
Last: Ronald Reagan, 1984, +12.9%
Times Democrat: 16
Last: Joe Biden 2020, +19.2%
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Presidential Election Characteristics
· The Evergreen State is one of few “blue states” with substantial population growth, and likely the only one entitled to a gripe that it didn’t gain an electoral vote for this decade’s elections, while Oregon and Colorado did.
· Three big counties in the Seattle metro area, King (includes core Seattle), Snohomish, and Pierce, accounted for 51.7% of all ballots counted for the 2020 presidential race and vanquish Republican gains throughout the rest of the state, particularly in the highly conservative region considered Eastern Washington.
· The Seattle metro’s urban vote, combined with white liberals in coastal enclaves along the Puget Sound and a staunchly Democrat Asian population (more than 10% of the state population is Asian) makes up the Democrat coalition, while the new Republican coalition is made up of working-class voters in formerly Democrat counties (such as Grays Harbor County, which Trump flipped in 2016, and held in 2020, for the first Republican presidential wins there since 1928), and right-wing conservatives that are widely found throughout central and eastern Washington, over the Cascades.
· Washington allotted four electors to candidates other than Hillary Clinton in 2016 and had a large third-party vote share that year, symbolic of their grassroots left element’s frustration with the establishment Democrat Party and their commitment to bringing about so-called Democratic Socialism. That opens a pathway for a populist Republican coalition to scoop up these mostly younger voters.
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2020 Review
Official: Joe Biden +19.2% (784,961 votes in margin)
Keshel Revised Likely: Joe Biden +5.6% (194,849 votes in margin)
All things considered, Washington qualifies for one of several dishonorable titles pertaining to the 2020 race, in that I believe it was the most fraudulent state per elector in the country, with 590,112 likely fraudulent votes spread over 12 electors. That makes for an eye-popping 49,176 per elector. This was necessary to mask a tremendous Trump surge in the Pacific northwest that would have most likely put the race within six points. Consult a history guide and you’ll find that range is precisely where George W. Bush’s losing margins fell in the 2000 and 2004 races before the big Obama bump and the mastery of electoral fraud in the state occurred.
Simply put, Trump’s performance in Washington was nothing short of astounding. The Republican and Democrat nominees from 2008 through 2016 had almost identical performances for three consecutive cycles, with McCain, Romney, and Trump all having between 1.221 million and 1.291 million votes, and Obama, Obama 2.0, and Clinton having an even tighter shot group of between 1.742 and 1.755 million votes each, for Democrat margins of 14.9% to 16.9%. In 2020, Donald Trump gained 362,904 net new votes over his previous performance, which exceeded John Kerry’s previous record of 262,549, and Barack Obama’s 2008 gain of 240,647, in which the state expanded from a Kerry margin of 7.2% all the way out to 16.9%; however, Trump’s gain was wiped out by a Biden tsunami of 626,894 net new votes, or 2.4 times higher than the previous high Democrat jump, and 1.7 times higher than Trump’s new record set in the same election. As a result, Washington moved 3.5% to the left in certified results.
The Seattle Times has taken issue with my assessment, but Washington State has perhaps the ugliest 2020 returns in the nation, altering the likely margin by roughly 13.6%, or more. Outside of the blue bubble, Spokane, Clark, and Thurston Counties are among the worst there are, and King County has a likely tally of at least 143,310 fraudulent ballots, almost all scooped up by organized ballot harvesting rings that penetrated all surrounding counties according to precinct analysis. Bill Bruch, a local election integrity activist, has done outstanding work in corroborating these findings for more than three years.
2024 Preview
Prediction: Joe Biden >+15% official, <5% clean
With 40 years having passed since Washington last gave its electors to a GOP presidential nominee, it would appear we are at the point in the political cycle in which Trump would have a puncher’s chance to flip Washington if only the state didn’t run some of the worst elections in the country and generate so much of its balloting (both real and not) from the massive Seattle metro. There is substantial working-class movement to Trump that now encompasses all races, and with my belief that we should have been looking at a much tighter than normal race in Washington last time around, a continuation of that movement would easily put the race within 5 points, and with enough good fortune, down to the wire.
As it stands now, since Washington was last competitive, they’ve added universal mail-in voting, which is fed by a steady stream of fraudulent registrations for their paid gangs of ballot harvesters to fill in their weeks-long adult Easter egg hunts that hatch Democrat elected officials. I don’t think, given the momentum in the country and the extensive ballot stuffing effort undertaken in the last race, Democrats will be able to push the margin over 20 points, but the mid-teens is very likely, and Trump’s lack of interest in confronting the Pacific Northwest’s blue wall seems to confirm the state is far out of reach thanks to the electoral engineering and blatant cheating that occurs there. It will take major electoral reform to force accountability in this area and bring competitiveness back to Washington.
If you would like to sponsor a precinct map for any of this state’s 39 counties, e-mail mapping@goefi.org.
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Author’s Note: Information is power. This report is free for all to view, and I believe the other Electoral College previews will be, as well. If you find this journal useful and informative, please subscribe as a paying member. My travels and mission this year will not be inexpensive, and your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!
Unfortunately, I know you’re right on this one. Thank for your faithful help in this battle.
Hi Seth. I sponsored Missoula County, MT. My check was sent in March and has never been cashed. Any idea how I can find out what happened?