OREGON
Basic Election Facts
2024 Electoral Votes: 8
Population (2020 Census): 4,237,256 (+406,182 since 2010)
Likely Population at 2024 Election: 4,225,000
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Partisanship
Governor Party: Democrat
State House Majority: Democrat
State House Majority: Democrat
U.S. House Delegation: 4 Democrats, 2 Republicans
U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Democrats
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Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)
White: 74.8%
Latino: 13.9%
Black: 2.0%
Other: 9.3%
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Presidential History since 1932
Times Republican: 9
Last: Ronald Reagan, 1984, +12.2%
Times Democrat: 14
Last: Joe Biden, 2020, +16.1%
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Presidential Election Characteristics
· Oregon has gained an electoral vote for this decade’s elections, though recent data suggests the state is no longer gaining population. Its political cousin, Washington, is surging in population, but did not gain an electoral vote for 2024 and 2028.
· The Beaver State is responsible for the national crisis of mail-in voting, beginning wide experimentation in the 1990s before debuting it on the big stage for the 2000 election. That race, and the subsequent 2004 race, were the last competitive elections in a state now dominated by Portland (Multnomah County) and the surrounding area. Deep blue Multnomah (Biden +61.3%) and Washington (Biden +34.6%) Counties of the Portland metro area contributed almost exactly one-third of all ballots in the 2020 race.
· Oregon’s urban dominance, much like Washington’s Seattle-based Democrat dominance, swamps the rest of the state, despite Trump having carried 26 of 36 counties in certified results. The state’s maladministration of its own election cost Trump long-time GOP strongholds Marion and Deschutes Counties, which he won in 2016.
· Oregon’s Democrat voter base consists of environmental activist white liberals, ANTIFA goons, and majority support of a relatively small minority population, whereas the new Republican coalition combines right-wing “cowboy” conservatives and old-school Democrats, such as those found in Clatsop and Columbia Counties, the latter of which Trump carried in 2016 (and held in 2020) after it had not been won by a GOP presidential nominee since 1928.
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2020 Review
Official: Joe Biden +16.1% (381,935 votes in margin)
Keshel Revised Likely: Joe Biden +5.8% (121,982 votes in margin)
Once again mimicking the movement to the north in Washington, Oregon’s 2020 election results are equally preposterous, only on a scale about half the size of Washington’s insanity. The states made the same leap together in 2008, moving from competitive (Washington was Kerry +7.2%, Oregon +4.2%) to blowouts (Washington was Obama +16.9%, Oregon +16.4%), and then cooling off over the next two cycles. Trump’s gain of 176,045 net new votes was the second highest in state history regardless of party, but of course, he was outdone by Biden’s net gain of 338,277 net new “votes,” more than tripling Barack Obama’s gain when he was the most dynamic candidate in decades in a left-swinging year. The result was Oregon moving left from Clinton +11.0% to Biden +16.1%.
In reality, Trump should have finished within 6 points in Oregon, too. Many of his strongest gains came in former Democrat strongholds, and there simply aren’t enough white liberals moving in to a state that had already been voting by mail for two decades, and harvesting ballots all throughout their strongest areas. The four worst counties by amount of likely fraudulent ballots are Multnomah, Washington, Clackamas, and Lane, but the cheat is spread wide and is evident even in conservative counties, which had massive boosts in turnout for Trump in his reelection bid that went along with a Republican Party registration advantage leading up to the election.
2024 Preview
Prediction: Joe Biden >+12% official, <5% clean
Just like its political cousin north of the Columbia River, 40 years have passed since Oregon last gave its electors to a GOP presidential nominee. After showing every sign, as listed in the preceding section, that the 2020 race should have resembled the 2004 race, Oregon would be in line for a potential photo finish, or Trump upset in a big enough performance. Oregon, unlike Washington, registers voters by party and continues to show a slight Republican Party voter registration shift statewide and in the vast majority of counties, although the total index is distorted thanks to Automatic Voter Registration.
Oregon added Automatic Voter Registration just before the 2016 election, which ensures they’ll never run out of ballots to harvest in the event of a close race. Much to the advantage of Democrats statewide, even as they face an assault on their far left, is the fact that Oregon Republicans are among the worst in the country and refuse to challenge obviously corrupt races, like the 2022 governor’s race in which Christine Drazan folded up like a cheap suit and conceded. Oregon is another state that has spent so long in the Democrat wilderness, that few see the trendlines and recognize that a working-class shift should have this state up for grabs in 2024, just like Washington. As it stands, Oregon will likely be a few points to the right of Washington, perhaps down to 12 points with Trump well over 1 million votes, but it isn’t moving out of the Democrat column until major electoral reforms take place, and urban and suburban corruption is removed.
If you would like to sponsor a precinct map for any of this state’s 36 counties, e-mail mapping@goefi.org.
Previous Installments
Author’s Note: Information is power. This report is free for all to view, and I believe the other Electoral College previews will be, as well. If you find this journal useful and informative, please subscribe as a paying member. My travels and mission this year will not be inexpensive, and your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!
You’ve come right to home with me on this and you’ve nailed the detail correctly regarding the Republican establishment in the state. I don’t like to think I’m part of this “cabal”, but you can only point the finger so long. I’m going to keep calling it out but like you I think the reality is, it’s a very long haul to see any real change. Thank you for your outstanding help!