Know Your 2024 Electoral College: Hawaii (4 Electoral Votes)
Topic: Elections
HAWAII
Basic Election Facts
2024 Electoral Votes: 4
Population (2020 Census): 1,455,271 (+94,970 since 2010)
Likely Population at 2024 Election: 1,425,000
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Partisanship
Governor Party: Democrat
State House Majority: Democrat
State House Majority: Democrat
U.S. House Delegation: 2 Democrats
U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Democrats
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Ethnic Demographics (2020 census)
White: 22.9%
Latino: 9.5%
Asian: 37.2%
Other: 30.4%
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Presidential History since 1960
Times Republican: 2
Last: Ronald Reagan, 1984, +11.3%
Times Democrat: 14
Last: Joe Biden, 2020, +29.5%
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Presidential Election Characteristics
· Hawaii has begun losing population for the first time since not only statehood, but its acquisition as a U.S. territory in the 19th century, thanks to the impact of leftist policy and accompanying unaffordable cost of living.
· The state is made up of four major counties (Honolulu, Maui, Hawaii, and Kauai), and a small fifth county with a handful of votes, Kalawao. Honolulu County, which contains the entirety of the island of Oahu, contributed almost exactly two-thirds of the 2020 ballot count, and boasts a large military and transient resident population. It is, oddly, normally the most Republican of Hawaii’s counties despite being by far the most urban.
· Hawaii has a very diverse ethnic picture, with a population more than one-third Asian, and of many Asian ethnicities. Only about 10.8% of the population is Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander.
· Historically, the state favors incumbent presidents. George W. Bush became the first successfully reelected president to lose Hawaii but did so by less than 10% in 2004. Donald Trump’s incumbent strength was obvious in 2020, as described below.
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2020 Review
Official: Joe Biden +29.5% (169,266 votes in margin)
Keshel Revised Likely: Joe Biden +5.0% (21,136 votes in margin)
Of my many assessments, my work for Hawaii is often the most shocking for those who have been conditioned to anticipate wipeout Democrat margins in the state, especially since Hawaiian Barack Obama blew the margins up into the stratosphere (+45.3% and +42.7% margins in 2008 and 2012, respectively). Trump’s gain of 52.8% in Hawaii was his largest gain as a percentage in any state excluding Utah, which consolidated its GOP base after a third-party ruse in 2016, and therefore doesn’t make for a good comparable state.
It is not Trump’s successful use of coconut wireless to drive his vote from 128,847 in 2016 to 196,864 in 2020 that is most astounding to me, but rather the fact that Joe Biden outperformed Barack Obama in Obama’s home state, with an incumbent president having his highest national gain right there in Hawaii. Biden came in with a whopping 366,130 certified ballots, smoking Obama’s previous high in a 2008 surge by more than 12%, when Trump was more than 60% higher than McCain’s vote count from that year.
Honolulu County probably should have tilted to Trump, or at least been neck and neck, and substantial fraud can be seen on Maui, Hawaii (the “Big Island”), and Kauai. Outstanding election patriots like Corinne Solomon (Audit the Vote Hawaii) and Ralph Cushnie have corroborated massive corruption throughout the islands, and my data also shows substantial flooding of ballots in areas known for vacation homes, such as Maui’s southern shore, or the Big Island’s Kona coast. Strangely enough, remote outposts full of Native Hawaiians had large Trump surges, especially in Niihau, Hawaii’s “forbidden island” off the coast of Kauai, which although very small, is 100% Native and went 43-0 for Trump after giving him a much narrower win in 2016. Democrat inability to even access the private island suggests ballot harvesting was impossible, and therefore yielded an organic result aligning with a major Trump undercurrent in our 50th state. I suspect the likely margin in Hawaii was well inside 10%, perhaps down to an even 5%.
2024 Preview
Prediction: Joe Biden >+20% official, <5% clean
Hawaii is absolutely primed for a terrible 2024 election, given that it has a single urban county that casts two-thirds of the “vote,” with the ability to smother any progress on other islands, which may be more Republican than at any point since Reagan won them all in 1984, universal mail-in balloting, and the cursed Automatic Voter Registration that feeds fraud fuel to the corrupt officials like kindling.
Polling has suggested a tighter race in Hawaii should be in the works, as outlined in my 2020 review, and it is very possible Trump will approach Hillary Clinton’s ballot total from 2016, in which she carried the state by a certified margin of 32.5%. He will have major traction with Native Hawaiians in the state, and may truly surprise on Maui, where Democrat mismanagement and concealed corruption and complicity of last year’s fire tragedy is a source of tremendous outrage. Hawaii has three consecutive Republican shifts since Obama’s 2008 high point, and a fourth one is all but certain, although Trump will be deprived of Hawaii’s four electors thanks to the built in fraud system in place, and a very difficult demographic situation (large East Asian and white liberal population) that prevents a victory significant enough to override fraud.
Hawaii will go to Biden with little difficulty, likely between 20-25%, but the data will show major Trump movement stifled only by election corruption.
Previous Installments
Author’s Note: Information is power. This report is free for all to view, and I believe the other Electoral College previews will be, as well. If you find this journal useful and informative, please subscribe as a paying member. My travels and mission this year will not be inexpensive, and your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!
Outstanding again Seth! The forgotten people in Hawaii and the rest of the country, are very picturized by those few unanimous votes from the island of Niihau in the 2020 election.