Know Your 2024 Electoral College: Maine's Split Electors (2 of 4 Electoral Votes)
Topic: Elections
MAINE’S 1st CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
MAINE’S 2nd CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Basic Election Facts
2024 Electoral Votes: ME-1st Congressional District (1); ME-2nd Congressional District (1)
Population (2020 Census): ME-1 (697,698); ME-2 (687,642)
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Partisanship
ME-1
U.S. House Delegation: 1 Democrat
ME-2
U.S. House Delegation: 1 Democrat
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Presidential History since 1972
ME-1
Times Republican: 5
Last: George H.W. Bush, 1988, +12.7%
Times Democrat: 8
Last: Joe Biden, 2020, +23.1%
ME-2
Times Republican: 7
Last: Donald Trump, 2020, +7.4%
Times Democrat: 6
Last: Barack Obama, 2012, +8.6%
Presidential Election Characteristics
· Maine is one of just two states, along with Nebraska, that splits its electors. Each congressional district is worth one electoral vote, and the winner of the state takes another two. The electoral votes have been split since the 1972 election.
· The two districts are almost identical in population and demographics, and have only split candidates twice, in 2016 and 2020. The current district boundaries were in place for the 2012 election, and have only been redrawn slightly since 1972.
· ME-1 resembles liberal New England and the population dense East Coast, and includes Cumberland County (metro Portland), Knox County, Lincoln County, Sagadahoc County, and York County. ME-2 has a much stronger working-class dynamic, and includes the rest of the state, including Aroostook, Franklin, Hancock, Oxford, Penobscot (metro Bangor), Piscataquis, Somerset, Waldo, and Washington Counties. Kennebec County is split between the two districts.
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2020 Review
ME-1
Official: Joe Biden +23.1%
Keshel Revised Likely: Joe Biden +14.6%
ME-2
Official: Donald Trump +7.4%
Keshel Revised Likely: Donald Trump +13.4%
The 2020 election in Maine, like nearly everywhere else, was a trainwreck that had substantial impact on the statewide results, which will be covered in a future article outlining the likely destination of Maine’s two statewide electors. ME-1 is substantially fraudulent, and between Cumberland and York Counties alone, both within a short trip to metro Boston, I’ve estimated nearly 31,000 likely stuffed ballots.
ME-2 has many more remote counties far off in the woods, but a nearly equal population mostly consolidated around the coast and metro Bangor (Penobscot County). It had a cleaner election result by virtue of being much more inconvenient to harvest with packs of paid activists who rip off votes for a livelihood, but still declined in margin of victory for Trump despite a strong increase in net new votes for Trump and a stagnant, if not declining, pool of voters.
Ultimately, both districts allotted electors as should have occurred, but the statewide result requires greater scrutiny.
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2024 Preview
Prediction:
ME-1
Joe Biden >+20% official, <+12% clean
ME-2
Donald Trump >+10% official, >15% clean
Party registration, while favorable for Trump statewide, shows another split picture, with the southern district (ME-1) increasing its Democrat voter registration advantage and presumably adding more of one of few demographics trending left, which are affluent, post-grad voters, complete with their vacation homes and gobs of money comfortably insulated from real national issues, such as border security, closed factories, and urban violence. ME-1 will go to Biden comfortably, and likely by a certified margin around 20 points.
ME-2, on the other hand, has a notable Republican registration trend throughout which gets diluted with Automatic Voter Registration, and its lily white, non-college base is strong enough for Trump that statewide polls are close. No one expects Biden to be in the ballpark here, and I’m confident Trump will take it by more than 10% in certified results, and maybe even drag a Republican congressman to Washington, D.C., this time around.
My statewide preview will merge the two together for a projected allotment of the two statewide electors.
If you’d like to sponsor a precinct mapping of any of the state’s counties, e-mail mapping@goefi.org.
Previous Installments
Author’s Note: Information is power. This report is free for all to view, and I believe the other Electoral College previews will be, as well. If you find this journal useful and informative, please subscribe as a paying member. My travels and mission this year will not be inexpensive, and your support is greatly appreciated. Thank you!