Wrap on 2024's "Safe Electoral Votes" and Introduction to "Leaners"
Topic: 2024 Election
Safe Electors
This is the transition point of the 2024 Electoral College preview. I have now completed my assessment of 370 electoral votes I consider safe, or likely to be won by more than 10 points and therefore not competitive (yes, this accounts for fraud, state laws, and anticipated deceit), spread over 37 states, plus Washington, D.C. They come out to a 191-179 Biden advantage before getting into the upcoming “leaners” category. The map is below, and the defining characteristic of any electoral votes in this category is that not only do I expect margins over 10%, but I am also convinced beyond a shadow of doubt they will not go for the other candidate, even if I miss on the predicted margin.
Consider this the starting point, the “base camp,” of the 2024 presidential election:
The individual breakdowns can be found at these links:
Leaners
Five whole states, plus the two statewide electoral votes of Maine and the single electoral vote of Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, will be profiled in this next phase, called “leaners.” In this category, I expect the electoral margin to certainly or potentially be within 10 points, and if closer, likely not part of the slate of states I expect to decide the race; however, if any leaner goes to the underdog candidate, it is a dead giveaway that the favored candidate for any of these states is in extreme peril when it comes to the decisive state outcomes.
These are different not only because of the change in expected margin, but because I reserve the right to change my prediction, whereas in the previous category, I do not envision a scenario in which the state will not go as predicted, even if I miss the margin threshold. For instance, the selection of a Vice-Presidential candidate from a state in “leaners” I’ve expected to go to Joe Biden may change my prediction, or move the state to the third category, which I will call “decisive” electoral votes.
The whole states in the “leaners” category are New Mexico, Texas, Minnesota, Virginia, and North Carolina. Including the split elector of Nebraska and the two statewide electors for Maine, this section will profile 87 electoral votes.
This is in-depth, time-consuming analysis, and I plan to offer only New Mexico, NE-2, and Maine Statewide for all subscribers. Please sign up as a paying member for the deeper readouts on these key states.
